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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Cagliari

T S T T U

2–0

Full-time

Spal

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 21%

27%

14%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

55%

45%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

68%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

27 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 16. · Spal 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	22	18	3	1	+34	57
2	Juventus	22	18	2	2	+37	56
3	Lazio	22	14	4	4	+30	46
4	Inter	23	12	9	2	+20	45
5	Roma	23	13	5	5	+16	44
6	Sampdoria	23	11	5	7	+10	38
7	Milan	22	10	4	8	+0	34
8	Atalanta	22	9	6	7	+7	33
9	Torino	23	7	12	4	+4	33
10	Udinese	22	10	2	10	+4	32
11	Fiorentina	22	7	7	8	+3	28
12	Bologna	22	8	3	11	-6	27
13	Chievo	22	5	7	10	-18	22
14	Sassuolo	22	6	4	12	-20	22
15	Genoa	22	5	6	11	-8	21
16	Cagliari	22	6	3	13	-14	21
17	Crotone	23	5	5	13	-22	20
18	Spal	22	3	8	11	-17	17
19	Verona	23	4	4	15	-24	16
20	Benevento	22	2	1	19	-36	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	9	1	1	+19	28
2	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+18	26
3	Sampdoria	12	8	2	2	+16	26
4	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
5	Roma	12	7	1	4	+6	22
6	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+17	20
7	Milan	11	6	2	3	+1	20
8	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+7	18
9	Torino	11	4	5	2	+7	17
10	Udinese	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+2	16
12	Chievo	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Bologna	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Crotone	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Spal	11	2	5	4	-5	11
16	Cagliari	11	3	1	7	-6	10
17	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	9
18	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-7	8
19	Benevento	11	2	1	8	-14	7
20	Verona	12	2	1	9	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+16	31
2	Juventus	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	Lazio	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Roma	11	6	4	1	+10	22
5	Inter	11	5	5	1	+7	20
6	Udinese	11	5	1	5	+0	16
7	Torino	12	3	7	2	-3	16
8	Atalanta	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-4	15
10	Milan	11	4	2	5	-1	14
11	Genoa	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Sassuolo	11	4	1	6	-11	13
13	Fiorentina	11	3	3	5	+1	12
14	Sampdoria	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Cagliari	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Verona	11	2	3	6	-9	9
17	Chievo	11	2	3	6	-14	9
18	Crotone	12	2	2	8	-16	8
19	Spal	11	1	3	7	-12	6
20	Benevento	11	0	0	11	-22	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.