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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Napoli

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Carpi

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Carpi

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,5

2,2

Scored

3,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 44%

70%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

Both score Ø 61%

57%

65%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

76% Possession 24%

22 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

13 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Carpi 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	23	16	5	2	+33	53
2	Juventus	23	16	3	4	+28	51
3	Fiorentina	24	14	4	6	+19	46
4	Inter	24	13	6	5	+10	45
5	Roma	23	11	8	4	+17	41
6	Milan	23	11	6	6	+9	39
7	Sassuolo	23	8	9	6	+0	33
8	Lazio	24	9	6	9	-3	33
9	Empoli	23	9	6	8	-3	33
10	Bologna	24	9	3	12	-3	30
11	Torino	23	7	7	9	-1	28
12	Chievo	23	7	6	10	-4	27
13	Atalanta	23	7	6	10	-4	27
14	Udinese	23	7	5	11	-16	26
15	Genoa	24	6	7	11	-4	25
16	Palermo	23	7	4	12	-13	25
17	Sampdoria	23	6	6	11	-6	24
18	Carpi	23	4	7	12	-17	19
19	Frosinone	23	5	4	14	-24	19
20	Verona	24	1	12	11	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	11	9	2	0	+18	29
2	Fiorentina	12	9	1	2	+16	28
3	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+12	26
4	Roma	11	7	3	1	+13	24
5	Milan	11	7	2	2	+7	23
6	Inter	12	7	2	3	+5	23
7	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+7	21
8	Torino	12	5	4	3	+6	19
9	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+5	18
10	Sampdoria	12	5	3	4	+4	18
11	Genoa	12	5	3	4	+4	18
12	Sassuolo	11	4	5	2	+0	17
13	Frosinone	12	5	2	5	-4	17
14	Empoli	11	4	3	4	+1	15
15	Bologna	13	4	3	6	+0	15
16	Palermo	12	4	2	6	-3	14
17	Chievo	11	3	4	4	-1	13
18	Carpi	12	3	4	5	-2	13
19	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-8	12
20	Verona	13	1	6	6	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	8	1	3	+16	25
2	Napoli	12	7	3	2	+15	24
3	Inter	12	6	4	2	+5	22
4	Fiorentina	12	5	3	4	+3	18
5	Empoli	12	5	3	4	-4	18
6	Roma	12	4	5	3	+4	17
7	Milan	12	4	4	4	+2	16
8	Sassuolo	12	4	4	4	+0	16
9	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-3	15
10	Chievo	12	4	2	6	-3	14
11	Udinese	12	4	2	6	-8	14
12	Lazio	12	3	3	6	-10	12
13	Palermo	11	3	2	6	-10	11
14	Torino	11	2	3	6	-7	9
15	Atalanta	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Genoa	12	1	4	7	-8	7
17	Sampdoria	11	1	3	7	-10	6
18	Verona	11	0	6	5	-10	6
19	Carpi	11	1	3	7	-15	6
20	Frosinone	11	0	2	9	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.