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Championship

Referee: Gavin Ward

Brighton

S U U S U

2–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — Championship · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 52%

56%

47%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

44%

29%

Both score Ø 55%

69%

41%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

61% Possession 39%

22 Shots 15

9 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 2. · Birmingham 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	17	10	5	2	+18	35
2	Brighton	16	9	7	0	+9	34
3	Middlesbrough	17	10	3	4	+13	33
4	Derby	17	9	6	2	+13	33
5	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+9	33
6	Birmingham	17	8	4	5	+6	28
7	Ipswich	18	7	7	4	+3	28
8	Reading	17	7	6	4	+7	27
9	Sheffield Weds	16	7	5	4	+3	26
10	Cardiff	17	6	7	4	+3	25
11	Brentford	17	7	3	7	-1	24
12	Fulham	17	5	6	6	+1	21
13	Blackburn	17	4	8	5	+1	20
14	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-1	20
15	QPR	17	5	5	7	-3	20
16	Leeds	17	4	7	6	-4	19
17	Preston	17	3	8	6	-3	17
18	Nott'm Forest	17	4	5	8	-5	17
19	Bristol City	17	3	7	7	-9	16
20	Charlton	18	4	4	10	-14	16
21	Huddersfield	17	3	6	8	-9	15
22	Milton Keynes Dons	17	4	3	10	-9	15
23	Rotherham	17	3	3	11	-15	12
24	Bolton	17	1	8	8	-13	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Hull	8	6	2	0	+13	20
3	Burnley	9	6	2	1	+8	20
4	Brighton	8	6	2	0	+6	20
5	Derby	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	Sheffield Weds	8	5	2	1	+6	17
7	Cardiff	8	5	2	1	+6	17
8	Reading	9	4	4	1	+7	16
9	Ipswich	9	3	5	1	+4	14
10	QPR	8	3	4	1	+5	13
11	Brentford	9	4	1	4	-3	13
12	Fulham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
13	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Charlton	9	3	2	4	-5	11
15	Blackburn	8	2	4	2	+3	10
16	Milton Keynes Dons	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	+0	9
18	Bolton	8	1	6	1	+0	9
19	Wolves	8	2	3	3	-1	9
20	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	9
21	Bristol City	9	2	3	4	-5	9
22	Preston	9	1	5	3	-2	8
23	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-6	6
24	Rotherham	8	1	2	5	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	8	5	2	1	+8	17
2	Hull	9	4	3	2	+5	15
3	Derby	8	4	3	1	+4	15
4	Brighton	8	3	5	0	+3	14
5	Ipswich	9	4	2	3	-1	14
6	Leeds	8	3	4	1	+2	13
7	Burnley	8	3	4	1	+1	13
8	Brentford	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Wolves	9	3	2	4	+0	11
10	Reading	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Fulham	9	2	4	3	+1	10
13	Blackburn	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Preston	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Sheffield Weds	8	2	3	3	-3	9
16	Cardiff	9	1	5	3	-3	8
17	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-4	8
18	Bristol City	8	1	4	3	-4	7
19	Rotherham	9	2	1	6	-6	7
20	QPR	9	2	1	6	-8	7
21	Huddersfield	9	1	3	5	-9	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	8	1	2	5	-6	5
23	Charlton	9	1	2	6	-9	5
24	Bolton	9	0	2	7	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.