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Eredivisie

Referee: Jochem Kamphuis

PSV Eindhoven

S S T S S

1–1

Full-time

Excelsior

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

63%

25%

Points per game

2,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

2,4

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

28 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 4. · Excelsior 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+17	22
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+7	19
3	Heracles	9	6	0	3	+8	18
4	PSV Eindhoven	8	5	2	1	+11	17
5	Zwolle	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Vitesse	8	4	2	2	+11	14
7	Nijmegen	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Groningen	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	AZ Alkmaar	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Roda	8	3	3	2	+0	12
11	Utrecht	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Excelsior	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Heerenveen	8	1	4	3	-4	7
14	Willem II	9	1	3	5	-5	6
15	Den Haag	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Twente	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Cambuur	9	0	5	4	-16	5
18	De Graafschap	8	0	1	7	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Groningen	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Vitesse	4	4	0	0	+14	12
3	Heracles	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	12
5	Zwolle	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Ajax	4	3	0	1	+8	9
7	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+5	9
8	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Roda	5	2	3	0	+3	9
10	Utrecht	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Heerenveen	4	1	3	0	+2	6
14	Willem II	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Twente	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Den Haag	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Cambuur	5	0	2	3	-13	2
18	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	2	2	1	+6	8
3	Zwolle	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Feyenoord	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Heracles	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	2	1	+0	5
7	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
8	Cambuur	4	0	3	1	-3	3
9	Roda	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Den Haag	4	1	0	3	-5	3
11	Vitesse	4	0	2	2	-3	2
12	Twente	5	0	2	3	-5	2
13	Willem II	5	0	2	3	-5	2
14	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-4	1
15	Excelsior	4	0	1	3	-6	1
16	Heerenveen	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	De Graafschap	4	0	0	4	-9	0
18	Groningen	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.