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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

Ajax

S U S S S

5–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,3

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

0,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,0

This season — Eredivisie · 30/28 matches

Win Ø 56%

73%

39%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

57% Possession 43%

27 Shots 10

12 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 0

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Heerenveen 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	31	24	4	3	+60	76
2	Ajax	30	22	6	2	+47	72
3	PSV Eindhoven	31	20	9	2	+41	69
4	Utrecht	28	14	7	7	+13	49
5	Vitesse	31	14	6	11	+11	48
6	Twente	31	12	9	10	+2	45
7	AZ Alkmaar	28	10	12	6	+6	42
8	Heerenveen	28	11	6	11	+8	39
9	Heracles	31	10	7	14	-5	37
10	Willem II	31	9	9	13	-11	36
11	Groningen	29	7	11	11	-1	32
12	Den Haag	31	9	5	17	-22	32
13	Zwolle	31	8	8	15	-25	32
14	Excelsior	31	7	10	14	-18	31
15	Roda	31	6	12	13	-22	30
16	Sparta Rotterdam	31	7	7	17	-21	28
17	Nijmegen	31	7	7	17	-29	28
18	Go Ahead Eagles	31	6	5	20	-34	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	16	14	2	0	+43	44
2	Ajax	15	12	2	1	+28	38
3	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	3	1	+22	36
4	Twente	16	8	4	4	+8	28
5	Vitesse	15	8	2	5	+9	26
6	Heerenveen	14	7	4	3	+11	25
7	Utrecht	13	7	3	3	+9	24
8	Heracles	16	7	3	6	+7	24
9	Den Haag	16	6	3	7	-2	21
10	AZ Alkmaar	14	4	8	2	+6	20
11	Excelsior	16	5	5	6	-1	20
12	Roda	16	5	5	6	-2	20
13	Willem II	16	5	5	6	-3	20
14	Sparta Rotterdam	15	5	4	6	+0	19
15	Groningen	15	4	7	4	-1	19
16	Nijmegen	15	5	4	6	-5	19
17	Zwolle	15	4	5	6	-9	17
18	Go Ahead Eagles	15	4	1	10	-12	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	10	4	1	+19	34
2	PSV Eindhoven	16	9	6	1	+19	33
3	Feyenoord	15	10	2	3	+17	32
4	Utrecht	15	7	4	4	+4	25
5	Vitesse	16	6	4	6	+2	22
6	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	4	4	+0	22
7	Twente	15	4	5	6	-6	17
8	Willem II	15	4	4	7	-8	16
9	Zwolle	16	4	3	9	-16	15
10	Heerenveen	14	4	2	8	-3	14
11	Groningen	14	3	4	7	+0	13
12	Heracles	15	3	4	8	-12	13
13	Excelsior	15	2	5	8	-17	11
14	Den Haag	15	3	2	10	-20	11
15	Roda	15	1	7	7	-20	10
16	Go Ahead Eagles	16	2	4	10	-22	10
17	Sparta Rotterdam	16	2	3	11	-21	9
18	Nijmegen	16	2	3	11	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.