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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Caen

U T U S U

1–3

Full-time

Lille

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 35%

16%

53%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

47%

58%

Both score Ø 56%

58%

53%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

56% Possession 44%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

14 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Caen 16. · Lille 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	15	2	0	+40	47
2	Lille	19	10	4	5	+10	34
3	Lyon	18	9	5	4	+9	32
4	Montpellier	18	8	6	4	+10	30
5	St Etienne	18	8	6	4	+6	30
6	Marseille	17	8	3	6	+4	27
7	Strasbourg	19	6	8	5	+7	26
8	Rennes	18	7	5	6	+2	26
9	Reims	19	6	8	5	-3	26
10	Nice	18	7	5	6	-4	26
11	Nantes	18	6	5	7	+1	23
12	Nimes	18	6	5	7	-2	23
13	Bordeaux	17	5	7	5	+0	22
14	Toulouse	18	5	6	7	-10	21
15	Angers	18	4	8	6	-2	20
16	Caen	19	3	9	7	-6	18
17	Amiens	19	5	3	11	-14	18
18	Dijon	18	4	4	10	-15	16
19	Monaco	18	3	4	11	-13	13
20	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	9	0	0	+25	27
2	St Etienne	9	7	2	0	+13	23
3	Lille	10	6	3	1	+11	21
4	Lyon	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+11	17
6	Montpellier	10	4	4	2	+7	16
7	Strasbourg	10	4	4	2	+6	16
8	Bordeaux	10	4	4	2	+3	16
9	Reims	10	4	4	2	+2	16
10	Nantes	9	4	3	2	+9	15
11	Rennes	9	4	2	3	+2	14
12	Nice	9	3	2	4	-5	11
13	Angers	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Caen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
15	Amiens	9	3	1	5	-2	10
16	Nimes	8	2	3	3	+1	9
17	Toulouse	8	2	3	3	-3	9
18	Dijon	8	2	1	5	-9	7
19	Guingamp	8	0	3	5	-8	3
20	Monaco	9	0	3	6	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+15	20
2	Nice	9	4	3	2	+1	15
3	Montpellier	8	4	2	2	+3	14
4	Nimes	10	4	2	4	-3	14
5	Lille	9	4	1	4	-1	13
6	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+0	12
7	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	-7	12
9	Strasbourg	9	2	4	3	+1	10
10	Angers	9	2	4	3	-1	10
11	Monaco	9	3	1	5	-3	10
12	Reims	9	2	4	3	-5	10
13	Marseille	9	3	1	5	-7	10
14	Dijon	10	2	3	5	-6	9
15	Caen	10	1	5	4	-5	8
16	Nantes	9	2	2	5	-8	8
17	Guingamp	10	2	2	6	-12	8
18	Amiens	10	2	2	6	-12	8
19	St Etienne	9	1	4	4	-7	7
20	Bordeaux	7	1	3	3	-3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.