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Ligue 1

Referee: M Lesage

Montpellier

S S T U S

0–1

Full-time

Lille

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 53%

53%

Points per game

1,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 2. · Lille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	14	1	0	+39	43
2	Montpellier	15	8	5	2	+13	29
3	Lyon	15	8	4	3	+8	28
4	Lille	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Marseille	15	8	2	5	+5	26
6	St Etienne	15	7	5	3	+4	26
7	Nice	16	7	4	5	-2	25
8	Strasbourg	15	5	6	4	+6	21
9	Reims	15	5	6	4	-3	21
10	Nimes	15	5	5	5	+2	20
11	Bordeaux	15	4	6	5	-1	18
12	Angers	16	4	6	6	-2	18
13	Nantes	15	4	5	6	-1	17
14	Rennes	15	4	5	6	-6	17
15	Toulouse	15	3	6	6	-11	15
16	Caen	15	2	7	6	-6	13
17	Monaco	16	3	4	9	-8	13
18	Dijon	15	3	4	8	-11	13
19	Amiens	16	4	1	11	-15	13
20	Guingamp	15	1	5	9	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	8	0	0	+24	24
2	Lille	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	St Etienne	8	6	2	0	+10	20
4	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+11	17
5	Lyon	8	5	2	1	+8	17
6	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	+8	15
7	Bordeaux	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Reims	7	3	3	1	+2	12
9	Strasbourg	7	3	2	2	+4	11
10	Nice	8	3	1	4	-5	10
11	Nantes	7	2	3	2	+6	9
12	Nimes	7	2	3	2	+2	9
13	Angers	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Amiens	8	3	0	5	-2	9
15	Toulouse	8	2	3	3	-3	9
16	Rennes	7	2	2	3	-4	8
17	Caen	7	1	4	2	-1	7
18	Dijon	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Guingamp	7	0	3	4	-7	3
20	Monaco	8	0	3	5	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+15	19
2	Nice	8	4	3	1	+3	15
3	Montpellier	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Nimes	8	3	2	3	+0	11
5	Lyon	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Strasbourg	8	2	4	2	+2	10
7	Monaco	8	3	1	4	+0	10
8	Angers	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Dijon	8	2	3	3	-1	9
10	Rennes	8	2	3	3	-2	9
11	Reims	8	2	3	3	-5	9
12	Marseille	7	3	0	4	-6	9
13	Nantes	8	2	2	4	-7	8
14	Lille	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Bordeaux	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Caen	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	St Etienne	7	1	3	3	-6	6
18	Toulouse	7	1	3	3	-8	6
19	Guingamp	8	1	2	5	-13	5
20	Amiens	8	1	1	6	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.