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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Sp Braga

S U S U T

2–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 55%

47%

63%

Points per game

1,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

53%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 24

4 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 5. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	31	23	6	2	+48	75
2	Porto	31	21	9	1	+51	72
3	Sp Lisbon	30	19	7	4	+31	64
4	Guimaraes	31	17	8	6	+16	59
5	Sp Braga	30	14	9	7	+15	51
6	Maritimo	31	13	8	10	+2	47
7	Rio Ave	31	13	6	12	+1	45
8	Feirense	31	11	6	14	-17	39
9	Boavista	31	9	11	11	-4	38
10	Chaves	31	8	13	10	-3	37
11	Vitoria Setubal	31	9	8	14	-8	35
12	Pacos Ferreira	30	7	11	12	-10	32
13	Belenenses	30	8	8	14	-17	32
14	Arouca	31	9	5	17	-20	32
15	Estoril	31	8	7	16	-9	31
16	Moreirense	31	6	8	17	-18	26
17	Tondela	31	5	8	18	-27	23
18	Nacional	31	4	8	19	-31	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	3	0	+35	42
2	Porto	16	13	3	0	+32	42
3	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+22	36
4	Maritimo	15	10	3	2	+13	33
5	Sp Braga	15	9	4	2	+16	31
6	Guimaraes	15	7	5	3	+7	26
7	Pacos Ferreira	15	6	7	2	+5	25
8	Rio Ave	15	7	4	4	+4	25
9	Chaves	16	6	7	3	+4	25
10	Vitoria Setubal	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Arouca	16	6	2	8	-4	20
12	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-9	20
13	Boavista	15	5	4	6	+3	19
14	Tondela	15	5	3	7	-4	18
15	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-4	17
16	Estoril	15	4	2	9	-6	14
17	Moreirense	15	2	7	6	-5	13
18	Nacional	16	2	6	8	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Guimaraes	16	10	3	3	+9	33
3	Porto	15	8	6	1	+19	30
4	Sp Lisbon	15	8	4	3	+9	28
5	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-1	20
6	Rio Ave	16	6	2	8	-3	20
7	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-7	19
8	Feirense	15	5	4	6	-8	19
9	Estoril	16	4	5	7	-3	17
10	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	Maritimo	16	3	5	8	-11	14
12	Moreirense	16	4	1	11	-13	13
13	Chaves	15	2	6	7	-7	12
14	Arouca	15	3	3	9	-16	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	5	8	-10	11
16	Nacional	15	2	2	11	-20	8
17	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	4	10	-15	7
18	Tondela	16	0	5	11	-23	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.