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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Bastia

U U T S S

1–2

Full-time

Marseille

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 34%

28%

39%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

39%

44%

Both score Ø 42%

44%

39%

Average goals

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

16 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 6

7 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 12. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	18	13	4	1	+21	43
2	Monaco	18	12	3	3	+35	39
3	Paris SG	18	11	3	4	+18	36
4	Lyon	17	10	1	6	+13	31
5	Guingamp	18	8	5	5	+6	29
6	Marseille	18	7	6	5	+2	27
7	Rennes	18	8	3	7	-3	27
8	Toulouse	18	7	5	6	+3	26
9	St Etienne	18	6	7	5	+2	25
10	Bordeaux	18	6	6	6	-6	24
11	Montpellier	18	5	7	6	-2	22
12	Bastia	18	5	5	8	-5	20
13	Lille	18	6	2	10	-7	20
14	Nancy	18	5	5	8	-8	20
15	Angers	18	5	4	9	-7	19
16	Caen	17	5	3	9	-11	18
17	Metz	17	5	3	9	-18	18
18	Dijon	18	3	7	8	-5	16
19	Nantes	17	4	4	9	-15	16
20	Lorient	18	4	3	11	-13	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	10	8	2	0	+16	26
2	Rennes	10	7	2	1	+9	23
3	Monaco	9	7	1	1	+23	22
4	Paris SG	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Marseille	9	6	3	0	+10	21
6	Guingamp	9	6	2	1	+6	20
7	Toulouse	9	6	1	2	+8	19
8	Montpellier	9	5	3	1	+10	18
9	Caen	9	5	2	2	+0	17
10	St Etienne	9	4	4	1	+5	16
11	Lyon	8	5	0	3	+5	15
12	Lille	9	5	0	4	+0	15
13	Bordeaux	9	4	2	3	-2	14
14	Dijon	9	3	4	2	+4	13
15	Nancy	9	4	1	4	+2	13
16	Bastia	9	3	4	2	+2	13
17	Lorient	9	4	1	4	-5	13
18	Angers	9	3	3	3	+0	12
19	Metz	7	2	2	3	-9	8
20	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+12	17
2	Nice	8	5	2	1	+5	17
3	Lyon	9	5	1	3	+8	16
4	Paris SG	9	5	0	4	+2	15
5	Bordeaux	9	2	4	3	-4	10
6	Nantes	9	3	1	5	-5	10
7	Metz	10	3	1	6	-9	10
8	Guingamp	9	2	3	4	+0	9
9	St Etienne	9	2	3	4	-3	9
10	Toulouse	9	1	4	4	-5	7
11	Bastia	9	2	1	6	-7	7
12	Angers	9	2	1	6	-7	7
13	Nancy	9	1	4	4	-10	7
14	Marseille	9	1	3	5	-8	6
15	Lille	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Montpellier	9	0	4	5	-12	4
17	Rennes	8	1	1	6	-12	4
18	Dijon	9	0	3	6	-9	3
19	Lorient	9	0	2	7	-8	2
20	Caen	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.