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Ligue 1

Referee: Fredy Fautrel

Toulouse

T T T U T

1–1

Full-time

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,2

0,8

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 19%

15%

23%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Gazelec FC Ajaccio 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	23	4	0	+54	73
2	Monaco	26	12	10	4	+8	46
3	Nice	27	11	8	8	+9	41
4	St Etienne	26	12	4	10	+2	40
5	Lyon	26	11	6	9	+10	39
6	Nantes	26	10	9	7	+2	39
7	Rennes	26	9	11	6	+3	38
8	Angers	26	10	7	9	+1	37
9	Bordeaux	27	9	10	8	-3	37
10	Caen	26	11	3	12	-8	36
11	Marseille	26	8	11	7	+9	35
12	Bastia	26	10	4	12	-4	34
13	Lille	26	6	13	7	+0	31
14	Lorient	26	7	10	9	-3	31
15	Guingamp	26	8	7	11	-6	31
16	Montpellier	26	8	5	13	-1	29
17	Reims	27	7	8	12	-10	29
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	26	6	9	11	-10	27
19	Toulouse	26	4	9	13	-19	21
20	Troyes	26	2	8	16	-34	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+32	35
2	Bastia	13	9	0	4	+9	27
3	Bordeaux	14	7	4	3	+6	25
4	Lyon	13	7	3	3	+13	24
5	St Etienne	13	7	3	3	+6	24
6	Nice	13	7	2	4	+7	23
7	Monaco	13	6	5	2	+6	23
8	Nantes	13	6	4	3	+3	22
9	Angers	13	5	6	2	+4	21
10	Lorient	13	5	5	3	+6	20
11	Guingamp	13	5	4	4	+4	19
12	Lille	13	5	4	4	+3	19
13	Caen	13	6	1	6	-6	19
14	Montpellier	14	6	0	8	-1	18
15	Reims	14	4	5	5	+0	17
16	Rennes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	13	3	6	4	-3	15
18	Marseille	13	2	7	4	+5	13
19	Toulouse	12	2	6	4	-1	12
20	Troyes	13	0	6	7	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+22	38
2	Monaco	13	6	5	2	+2	23
3	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+4	22
4	Rennes	13	5	6	2	+4	21
5	Nice	14	4	6	4	+2	18
6	Nantes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
7	Caen	13	5	2	6	-2	17
8	Angers	13	5	1	7	-3	16
9	St Etienne	13	5	1	7	-4	16
10	Lyon	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Lille	13	1	9	3	-3	12
12	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	13	3	3	7	-7	12
13	Bordeaux	13	2	6	5	-9	12
14	Reims	13	3	3	7	-10	12
15	Guingamp	13	3	3	7	-10	12
16	Montpellier	12	2	5	5	+0	11
17	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-9	11
18	Toulouse	14	2	3	9	-18	9
19	Troyes	13	2	2	9	-23	8
20	Bastia	13	1	4	8	-13	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.