Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Leicester
Stoke
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | +16 | 44 |
| 2 |
Leicester
|
22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | +13 | 44 |
| 3 |
Man City
|
22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | +22 | 43 |
| 4 |
Tottenham
|
22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | +20 | 39 |
| 5 |
Man United
|
22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | +8 | 37 |
| 6 |
West Ham
|
22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | +8 | 35 |
| 7 |
Liverpool
|
23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | -2 | 34 |
| 8 |
Stoke
|
22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | +2 | 33 |
| 9 |
Crystal Palace
|
22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 |
Southampton
|
22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +7 | 30 |
| 11 |
Everton
|
22 | 6 | 11 | 5 | +7 | 29 |
| 12 |
Watford
|
22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | +0 | 29 |
| 13 |
West Brom
|
22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 27 |
| 14 |
Chelsea
|
22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 |
Bournemouth
|
22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 16 |
Norwich
|
23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -15 | 23 |
| 17 |
Swansea
|
22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 18 |
Newcastle
|
22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -15 | 21 |
| 19 |
Sunderland
|
22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -18 | 18 |
| 20 |
Aston Villa
|
22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -20 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Aston Villa
Leicester
Tottenham
Leicester
Leicester
Bournemouth
Leicester
Man City
Liverpool
Leicester
Mike Dean · 154 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.