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Championship

Referee: Fred Graham

Middlesbrough

S S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

This season — Championship · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 48%

65%

30%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

35%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

19%

59%

Average goals

1,9

2,0

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

0,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

11 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 1. · Nott'm Forest 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	26	17	4	5	+24	55
2	Hull	26	16	5	5	+28	53
3	Burnley	27	13	9	5	+18	48
4	Derby	26	12	10	4	+15	46
5	Brighton	26	12	10	4	+5	46
6	Ipswich	27	12	9	6	+5	45
7	Sheffield Weds	26	12	8	6	+11	44
8	Birmingham	27	12	7	8	+6	43
9	Cardiff	27	10	10	7	+4	40
10	Wolves	28	10	8	10	-1	38
11	Brentford	27	10	6	11	-1	36
12	Nott'm Forest	27	8	11	8	+4	35
13	QPR	28	8	11	9	+0	35
14	Preston	27	8	11	8	+0	35
15	Reading	27	9	7	11	+1	34
16	Huddersfield	27	8	8	11	-1	32
17	Leeds	27	7	11	9	-5	32
18	Blackburn	26	6	11	9	+0	29
19	Fulham	27	6	10	11	-4	28
20	Milton Keynes Dons	27	7	5	15	-16	26
21	Rotherham	27	7	3	17	-15	24
22	Bristol City	27	5	9	13	-22	24
23	Charlton	27	4	8	15	-32	20
24	Bolton	27	2	11	14	-24	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	13	11	2	0	+26	35
2	Middlesbrough	13	10	2	1	+18	32
3	Sheffield Weds	13	9	3	1	+15	30
4	Burnley	13	8	3	2	+14	27
5	Derby	14	7	5	2	+12	26
6	Cardiff	13	7	5	1	+8	26
7	Brighton	13	8	2	3	+3	26
8	Nott'm Forest	14	6	5	3	+8	23
9	Reading	13	6	4	3	+7	22
10	Ipswich	14	5	6	3	+3	21
11	QPR	14	4	8	2	+5	20
12	Birmingham	13	6	2	5	-1	20
13	Brentford	14	6	2	6	-2	20
14	Huddersfield	14	5	4	5	+6	19
15	Milton Keynes Dons	14	6	1	7	-6	19
16	Preston	13	4	6	3	+1	18
17	Rotherham	14	5	2	7	-2	17
18	Wolves	14	4	5	5	-2	17
19	Blackburn	13	3	7	3	+3	16
20	Fulham	13	4	4	5	+1	16
21	Bolton	13	2	8	3	-2	14
22	Leeds	13	3	5	5	-4	14
23	Bristol City	14	3	5	6	-7	14
24	Charlton	13	3	5	5	-7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	13	7	3	3	+2	24
2	Birmingham	14	6	5	3	+7	23
3	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+6	23
4	Burnley	14	5	6	3	+4	21
5	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
6	Derby	12	5	5	2	+3	20
7	Brighton	13	4	8	1	+2	20
8	Hull	13	5	3	5	+2	18
9	Leeds	14	4	6	4	-1	18
10	Preston	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Brentford	13	4	4	5	+1	16
12	QPR	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Sheffield Weds	13	3	5	5	-4	14
14	Cardiff	14	3	5	6	-4	14
15	Blackburn	13	3	4	6	-3	13
16	Huddersfield	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Nott'm Forest	13	2	6	5	-4	12
18	Fulham	14	2	6	6	-5	12
19	Reading	14	3	3	8	-6	12
20	Bristol City	13	2	4	7	-15	10
21	Milton Keynes Dons	13	1	4	8	-10	7
22	Rotherham	13	2	1	10	-13	7
23	Charlton	14	1	3	10	-25	6
24	Bolton	14	0	3	11	-22	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.