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Ligue 1

Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry

Lille

U S U U T

0–1

Full-time

Nantes

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

0,7

2,0

Scored

0,3

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 7%

14%

Both score Ø 14%

14%

Average goals

0,7

1,9

Scored

0,3

0,4

Conceded

0,4

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

20 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 15. · Nantes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	St Etienne	8	5	1	2	+2	16
3	Rennes	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Reims	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Angers	8	4	3	1	+4	15
6	Caen	8	5	0	3	+0	15
7	Nice	8	4	2	2	+9	14
8	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	Monaco	8	3	3	2	-1	12
10	Lorient	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Bastia	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Bordeaux	8	2	4	2	-2	10
13	Guingamp	8	3	1	4	-4	10
14	Marseille	8	2	2	4	+4	8
15	Lille	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Toulouse	8	1	4	3	-5	7
17	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-7	7
18	Montpellier	8	1	1	6	-6	4
19	Troyes	8	0	4	4	-10	4
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	8	0	2	6	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Bastia	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Caen	4	3	0	1	+0	9
4	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Marseille	5	2	1	2	+7	7
6	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	7
7	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Guingamp	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	St Etienne	4	2	1	1	+0	7
11	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
12	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	Angers	4	1	3	0	+1	6
14	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-3	6
15	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+1	5
16	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Troyes	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Montpellier	5	1	0	4	-4	3
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+3	11
3	Angers	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	St Etienne	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Nice	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Caen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Reims	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Lorient	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Lille	4	0	3	1	-1	3
12	Bordeaux	4	0	3	1	-5	3
13	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-6	3
14	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Marseille	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Bastia	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Toulouse	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Troyes	3	0	1	2	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.