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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Bournemouth

T U T T T

0–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

4,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 14%

18%

Points per game

0,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

45%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

45%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,1

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

20 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

16 Corners 0

4 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 17. · Newcastle 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	1	2	+17	25
2	Arsenal	11	8	1	2	+13	25
3	Leicester	11	6	4	1	+4	22
4	Man United	11	6	3	2	+7	21
5	Tottenham	11	5	5	1	+10	20
6	West Ham	11	6	2	3	+7	20
7	Southampton	11	4	5	2	+5	17
8	Liverpool	11	4	5	2	+0	17
9	Everton	11	4	4	3	+4	16
10	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+1	16
11	Watford	11	4	4	3	+0	16
12	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-4	14
13	Swansea	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	Stoke	11	3	4	4	-3	13
15	Chelsea	11	3	2	6	-6	11
16	Norwich	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Bournemouth	11	2	2	7	-12	8
18	Newcastle	11	1	4	6	-10	7
19	Sunderland	11	1	3	7	-12	6
20	Aston Villa	11	1	1	9	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+14	15
2	Tottenham	6	3	3	0	+6	12
3	Man United	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Southampton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Leicester	5	3	1	1	+1	10
7	Everton	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	Swansea	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	-1	8
10	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Chelsea	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Newcastle	6	1	3	2	+2	6
15	Sunderland	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Norwich	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	West Brom	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Aston Villa	5	0	1	4	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	+9	15
2	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Leicester	6	3	3	0	+3	12
4	Man City	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Man United	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+1	10
7	Crystal Palace	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Stoke	6	2	3	1	+0	9
10	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+4	8
11	Everton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Watford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Southampton	5	1	4	0	+2	7
14	Swansea	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Chelsea	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-6	3
18	Bournemouth	6	1	0	5	-9	3
19	Sunderland	6	0	1	5	-12	1
20	Newcastle	5	0	1	4	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.