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Primeira Liga

Referee: Cosme Cunha Machado

Tondela

T T S T

0–1

Full-time

Estoril

T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 13%

25%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 13%

25%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0 Shots 1

0 Shots on target 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Tondela 15. · Estoril 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+10	9
4	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Arouca	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	+3	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	+1	6
8	Nacional	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	-2	6
10	Estoril	4	2	0	2	-3	6
11	Maritimo	4	1	2	1	+2	5
12	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Belenenses	4	0	3	1	-6	3
17	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Academica	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	U. Madeira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Academica	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Porto	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	2
7	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
8	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
9	U. Madeira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
10	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-4	1
11	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
12	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Sp Braga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Academica	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.