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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Roma

U T S S S

0–2

Full-time

Milan

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 54%

60%

48%

Points per game

2,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

36%

52%

Both score Ø 46%

44%

48%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

18 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 6

11 Free kicks against 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	25	21	3	1	+40	66
2	Juventus	25	21	2	2	+47	65
3	Lazio	26	16	4	6	+31	52
4	Inter	26	14	9	3	+21	51
5	Roma	25	15	5	5	+21	50
6	Sampdoria	26	13	5	8	+12	44
7	Milan	25	12	5	8	+5	41
8	Atalanta	25	10	8	7	+8	38
9	Torino	26	8	12	6	+4	36
10	Fiorentina	26	9	8	9	+3	35
11	Udinese	26	10	3	13	-1	33
12	Bologna	26	10	3	13	-5	33
13	Genoa	26	8	6	12	-6	30
14	Cagliari	25	7	4	14	-13	25
15	Chievo	26	6	7	13	-20	25
16	Sassuolo	26	6	5	15	-31	23
17	Crotone	26	5	6	15	-24	21
18	Spal	26	4	8	14	-23	20
19	Verona	26	5	4	17	-27	19
20	Benevento	26	3	1	22	-42	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	10	2	1	+22	32
2	Sampdoria	14	10	2	2	+19	32
3	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+26	31
4	Inter	14	9	4	1	+16	31
5	Roma	13	8	1	4	+9	25
6	Lazio	12	7	2	3	+18	23
7	Milan	12	7	2	3	+2	23
8	Atalanta	13	6	4	3	+8	22
9	Torino	13	5	5	3	+8	20
10	Fiorentina	13	5	4	4	+1	19
11	Bologna	14	5	3	6	+0	18
12	Udinese	13	5	2	6	+2	17
13	Chievo	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Cagliari	12	4	1	7	-4	13
15	Crotone	13	3	4	6	-7	13
16	Genoa	12	3	2	7	-5	11
17	Spal	12	2	5	5	-9	11
18	Sassuolo	13	2	4	7	-12	10
19	Verona	13	3	1	9	-14	10
20	Benevento	13	3	1	9	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	1	1	+21	34
2	Napoli	12	11	1	0	+18	34
3	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Roma	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Inter	12	5	5	2	+5	20
6	Genoa	14	5	4	5	-1	19
7	Milan	13	5	3	5	+3	18
8	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	+2	16
9	Atalanta	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	Udinese	13	5	1	7	-3	16
11	Torino	13	3	7	3	-4	16
12	Bologna	12	5	0	7	-5	15
13	Sassuolo	13	4	1	8	-19	13
14	Sampdoria	12	3	3	6	-7	12
15	Cagliari	13	3	3	7	-9	12
16	Verona	13	2	3	8	-13	9
17	Spal	14	2	3	9	-14	9
18	Chievo	13	2	3	8	-16	9
19	Crotone	13	2	2	9	-17	8
20	Benevento	13	0	0	13	-27	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.