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Serie A

Referee: Nicola Rizzoli

Milan

S U T U S

1–3

Full-time

Roma

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 50%

41%

59%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

41%

59%

Both score Ø 61%

51%

70%

Average goals

2,4

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

35% Possession 65%

14 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 1

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Roma 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	38	29	4	5	+55	91
2	Napoli	37	24	7	6	+44	79
3	Roma	37	22	11	4	+40	77
4	Inter	37	20	7	10	+14	67
5	Fiorentina	37	17	10	10	+16	61
6	Sassuolo	37	15	13	9	+7	58
7	Milan	37	15	12	10	+8	57
8	Lazio	37	15	9	13	+2	54
9	Chievo	37	13	10	14	-2	49
10	Genoa	37	13	7	17	-2	46
11	Torino	37	12	9	16	-2	45
12	Empoli	37	11	10	16	-10	43
13	Atalanta	37	10	12	15	-7	42
14	Bologna	37	11	8	18	-12	41
15	Sampdoria	38	10	10	18	-13	40
16	Udinese	37	10	9	18	-24	39
17	Palermo	37	9	9	19	-28	36
18	Carpi	37	8	11	18	-21	35
19	Frosinone	37	8	7	22	-37	31
20	Verona	37	5	13	19	-28	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	16	2	1	+31	50
2	Napoli	18	15	3	0	+33	48
3	Roma	19	13	5	1	+27	44
4	Inter	19	13	2	4	+14	41
5	Fiorentina	19	11	5	3	+18	38
6	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+11	33
7	Genoa	18	10	3	5	+11	33
8	Milan	18	9	6	3	+8	33
9	Atalanta	19	8	6	5	+6	30
10	Sassuolo	18	7	8	3	+3	29
11	Chievo	18	7	7	4	+7	28
12	Sampdoria	19	8	4	7	+4	28
13	Empoli	18	6	6	6	+1	24
14	Torino	19	6	6	7	+0	24
15	Carpi	19	6	5	8	-3	23
16	Frosinone	19	6	4	9	-8	22
17	Udinese	18	6	4	8	-9	22
18	Bologna	19	5	5	9	-1	20
19	Palermo	18	5	4	9	-7	19
20	Verona	19	4	6	9	-9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	13	2	4	+24	41
2	Roma	18	9	6	3	+13	33
3	Napoli	19	9	4	6	+11	31
4	Sassuolo	19	8	5	6	+4	29
5	Inter	18	7	5	6	+0	26
6	Milan	19	6	6	7	+0	24
7	Fiorentina	18	6	5	7	-2	23
8	Torino	18	6	3	9	-2	21
9	Lazio	19	5	6	8	-9	21
10	Chievo	19	6	3	10	-9	21
11	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-11	21
12	Empoli	19	5	4	10	-11	19
13	Udinese	19	4	5	10	-15	17
14	Palermo	19	4	5	10	-21	17
15	Genoa	19	3	4	12	-13	13
16	Atalanta	18	2	6	10	-13	12
17	Sampdoria	19	2	6	11	-17	12
18	Carpi	18	2	6	10	-18	12
19	Verona	18	1	7	10	-19	10
20	Frosinone	18	2	3	13	-29	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.