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Serie A

Referee: Marco Di Bello

Milan

S S T S U

4–0

Full-time

Palermo

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Palermo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-2,2

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 32%

53%

10%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

50%

53%

Both score Ø 60%

53%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,4

0,8

Conceded

1,1

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 7. · Palermo 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	31	25	2	4	+42	77
2	Roma	30	22	2	6	+40	68
3	Napoli	30	19	7	4	+36	64
4	Lazio	30	18	6	6	+21	60
5	Atalanta	31	18	5	8	+18	59
6	Inter	30	17	4	9	+23	55
7	Milan	30	16	6	8	+10	54
8	Fiorentina	31	14	10	7	+10	52
9	Sampdoria	31	12	9	10	+2	45
10	Torino	30	10	11	9	+6	41
11	Chievo	31	11	5	15	-10	38
12	Udinese	30	10	7	13	-2	37
13	Cagliari	30	10	5	15	-20	35
14	Bologna	30	9	7	14	-14	34
15	Sassuolo	31	9	5	17	-11	32
16	Genoa	30	7	8	15	-18	29
17	Empoli	31	5	8	18	-31	23
18	Crotone	30	4	5	21	-27	17
19	Palermo	30	3	6	21	-38	15
20	Pescara	31	2	8	21	-37	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	16	0	0	+32	48
2	Roma	15	14	0	1	+31	42
3	Napoli	16	10	4	2	+17	34
4	Inter	15	10	2	3	+21	32
5	Lazio	15	10	2	3	+14	32
6	Atalanta	15	10	2	3	+11	32
7	Milan	15	10	2	3	+9	32
8	Fiorentina	15	8	7	0	+10	31
9	Torino	15	8	6	1	+15	30
10	Sampdoria	16	8	5	3	+8	29
11	Cagliari	14	7	3	4	-2	24
12	Chievo	16	6	4	6	-1	22
13	Udinese	15	6	3	6	+3	21
14	Bologna	15	6	2	7	-3	20
15	Genoa	15	4	6	5	-1	18
16	Sassuolo	15	5	1	9	-6	16
17	Empoli	16	4	4	8	-12	16
18	Crotone	15	3	3	9	-8	12
19	Pescara	15	1	5	9	-15	8
20	Palermo	15	1	2	12	-21	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	9	3	2	+19	30
2	Juventus	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Lazio	15	8	4	3	+7	28
4	Atalanta	16	8	3	5	+7	27
5	Roma	15	8	2	5	+9	26
6	Inter	15	7	2	6	+2	23
7	Milan	15	6	4	5	+1	22
8	Fiorentina	16	6	3	7	+0	21
9	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-5	16
10	Udinese	15	4	4	7	-5	16
11	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-6	16
12	Chievo	15	5	1	9	-9	16
13	Bologna	15	3	5	7	-11	14
14	Torino	15	2	5	8	-9	11
15	Genoa	15	3	2	10	-17	11
16	Cagliari	16	3	2	11	-18	11
17	Palermo	15	2	4	9	-17	10
18	Empoli	15	1	4	10	-19	7
19	Pescara	16	1	3	12	-22	6
20	Crotone	15	1	2	12	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.