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Serie A
Referee: Carmine Russo
Sampdoria
U S S T S
2–2
Full-time
Fiorentina
U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,2
1,7
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 44%
40%
47%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
43%
60%
Both score Ø 58%
63%
53%
Average goals
2,4
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,6
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%
10 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 10
2 Offside 4
19 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sampdoria 9. · Fiorentina 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 31 25 2 4 +42 77
2 Roma 30 22 2 6 +40 68
3 Napoli 30 19 7 4 +36 64
4 Lazio 30 18 6 6 +21 60
5 Atalanta 31 18 5 8 +18 59
6 Inter 30 17 4 9 +23 55
7 Milan 30 16 6 8 +10 54
8 Fiorentina 30 14 9 7 +10 51
9 Sampdoria 30 12 8 10 +2 44
10 Torino 30 10 11 9 +6 41
11 Chievo 31 11 5 15 -10 38
12 Udinese 30 10 7 13 -2 37
13 Cagliari 30 10 5 15 -20 35
14 Bologna 30 9 7 14 -14 34
15 Sassuolo 31 9 5 17 -11 32
16 Genoa 30 7 8 15 -18 29
17 Empoli 31 5 8 18 -31 23
18 Crotone 30 4 5 21 -27 17
19 Palermo 30 3 6 21 -38 15
20 Pescara 31 2 8 21 -37 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sampdoria Fiorentina
1–0 Bruno Fernandes
5′
25′
🟨 Gonzalo Rodríguez
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 N. Kalinić
↦ J. Iličić
60′
G. Rodríguez 1–1
Borja Valero
D. Praet 🔁
↦ Bruno Fernandes
65′
Dennis Praet 🟨
67′
R. Álvarez 🔁
↦ K. Linetty
69′
2–1 R. Álvarez
P. Schick
71′
73′
🔁 F. Chiesa
↦ H. Milić
V. Regini 🔁
↦ Dodô
74′
Ricardo Álvarez 🟨
75′
81′
🔁 R. Saponara
↦ F. Bernardeschi
89′
K. Babacar 2–2
R. Saponara
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Sampdoria

4-3-1-2
2 E. Viviano G
26 M. Silvestre D
5 Dodô D
24 B. Bereszyński D
37 M. Škriniar D
8 É. Barreto M
16 K. Linetty M
10 Bruno Fernandes M
34 L. Torreira M
27 F. Quagliarella F
14 P. Schick F
Bench (12)
18 D. Praet
11 R. Álvarez
19 V. Regini
1 C. Puggioni
4 L. Šimić
17 A. Palombo
20 D. Pavlovic
21 L. Cigarini
23 F. Đuričić
29 A. Tessiore
30 W. Falcone
47 A. Budimir

Coach: M. Giampaolo

Fiorentina

3-4-2-1
12 C. Tătărușanu G
2 G. Rodríguez D
13 D. Astori D
6 C. Sánchez M
20 Borja Valero M
31 H. Milić D
72 J. Iličić F
5 M. Badelj M
30 K. Babacar F
16 Cristian Tello F
10 F. Bernardeschi M
Bench (12)
9 N. Kalinić
25 F. Chiesa
21 R. Saponara
40 N. Tomović
19 S. Cristóforo
15 M. Olivera
18 C. Salcedo
4 S. De Maio
24 I. Hagi
32 J. Mlakar
27 F. Maistro
57 M. Sportiello

Coach: Paulo Sousa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Carmine Russo · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
15,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.