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La Liga
Referee: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez
Vallecano
T U U T T
1–1
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
0,8
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,8
This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 13%
13%
13%
Points per game
0,6
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
63%
63%
Both score Ø 76%
63%
88%
Average goals
3,1
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
2,1
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,1
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%
11 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
0 Offside 4
14 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vallecano 19. · Ath Bilbao 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 9 5 3 1 +12 18
2 Espanol 9 5 2 2 +6 17
3 Alaves 9 5 2 2 +4 17
4 Sevilla 9 5 1 3 +8 16
5 Ath Madrid 9 4 4 1 +5 16
6 Valladolid 9 4 3 2 +2 15
7 Real Madrid 9 4 2 3 +4 14
8 Levante 9 4 1 4 -1 13
9 Sociedad 9 3 3 3 +1 12
10 Getafe 9 3 3 3 +0 12
11 Betis 9 3 3 3 -2 12
12 Eibar 9 3 2 4 -3 11
13 Celta 9 2 4 3 +0 10
14 Valencia 9 1 7 1 -1 10
15 Girona 9 2 4 3 -3 10
16 Villarreal 9 2 3 4 -1 9
17 Ath Bilbao 8 1 5 2 -4 8
18 Leganes 9 2 2 5 -5 8
19 Vallecano 8 1 2 5 -9 5
20 Huesca 9 1 2 6 -13 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vallecano Ath Bilbao
1–0 José Ángel Pozo
L. Advíncula
23′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Raúl García
↦ Iñaki Williams
53′
🟨 Raúl García
Giannelli Imbula 🟨
59′
Álvaro García 🔁
↦ G. Kakuta
61′
66′
🔁 San José
↦ Dani García
66′
Muniain 1–1
Álex Alegría 🔁
↦ José Ángel Pozo
73′
76′
🔁 Ander Capa
↦ De Marcos
Bebé 🔁
↦ Adri Embarba
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Vallecano

4-1-4-1
1 Alberto García G
17 L. Advíncula D
16 Jordi Amat D
23 Alejandro Gálvez D
10 G. Kakuta M
12 G. Imbula M
22 José Ángel Pozo F
7 Álex Moreno D
27 Santi Comesaña M
9 Raúl de Tomás F
11 Adri Embarba M
Bench (7)
18 Álvaro García
15 Álex Alegría
14 Bebé
13 S. Dimitrievski
20 E. Velázquez
21 A. Ba
28 Sergio Akieme

Coach: Míchel

Ath Bilbao

4-3-3
13 Iago Herrerín G
18 De Marcos D
12 Yuri D
4 Íñigo Martínez D
14 Susaeta M
16 Dani García M
23 Unai López M
31 Peru Nolaskoain M
20 Aduriz F
10 Muniain F
9 Iñaki Williams F
Bench (7)
22 Raúl García
6 San José
21 Ander Capa
5 Yeray Álvarez
17 Mikel Rico
24 Balenziaga
25 Unai Simón

Coach: E. Berizzo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez · 51 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.