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La Liga

Referee: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero

Barcelona

S S T S T

5–2

Full-time

Vallecano

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

71%

29%

Points per game

2,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 22

9 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 10

7 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 4. · Vallecano 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	5	3	0	+16	18
2	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	+7	16
3	Celta	7	4	3	0	+8	15
4	Barcelona	7	5	0	2	+3	15
5	Ath Madrid	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Eibar	8	3	4	1	+4	13
7	La Coruna	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Betis	7	3	2	2	-2	11
9	Valencia	7	2	3	2	-1	9
10	Sevilla	8	2	3	3	-4	9
11	Espanol	7	3	0	4	-9	9
12	Sp Gijon	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Ath Bilbao	7	2	1	4	-2	7
14	Getafe	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Vallecano	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Sociedad	7	1	3	3	-1	6
17	Malaga	7	1	3	3	-1	6
18	Levante	8	1	3	4	-9	6
19	Las Palmas	7	1	2	4	-3	5
20	Granada	7	1	1	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+9	10
2	Villarreal	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Celta	4	2	2	0	+6	8
5	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	Espanol	4	2	0	2	-5	6
10	Malaga	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Valencia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Levante	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Eibar	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	La Coruna	3	1	1	1	+2	4
15	Betis	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Las Palmas	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Sociedad	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Sp Gijon	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Granada	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	2	2	0	+7	8
2	Eibar	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	La Coruna	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Celta	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Sp Gijon	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Betis	4	2	1	1	-2	7
8	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Barcelona	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Valencia	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Granada	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-2	3
14	Vallecano	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Espanol	3	1	0	2	-4	3
16	Las Palmas	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Ath Bilbao	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Levante	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.