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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Dortmund

T S T S U

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 36%

47%

25%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

47%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

66% Possession 34%

12 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 5

16 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 3. · Mainz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	26	3	3	+65	81
2	Schalke 04	32	16	9	7	+14	57
3	Dortmund	32	15	10	7	+20	55
4	Hoffenheim	32	14	10	8	+18	52
5	Leverkusen	32	14	9	9	+13	51
6	RB Leipzig	32	13	8	11	-3	47
7	Ein Frankfurt	32	13	7	12	-2	46
8	Stuttgart	32	13	6	13	-5	45
9	M'gladbach	32	12	8	12	-6	44
10	Hertha	32	10	13	9	+3	43
11	Augsburg	32	10	11	11	+0	41
12	Werder Bremen	32	9	11	12	-4	38
13	Hannover	32	9	9	14	-11	36
14	Mainz	32	8	9	15	-14	33
15	Freiburg	32	7	12	13	-24	33
16	Wolfsburg	32	5	15	12	-12	30
17	Hamburg	32	7	7	18	-22	28
18	FC Koln	32	5	7	20	-30	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	14	2	0	+44	44
2	Hoffenheim	16	10	4	2	+20	34
3	Schalke 04	16	9	5	2	+11	32
4	Dortmund	16	9	4	3	+20	31
5	Stuttgart	16	9	4	3	+7	31
6	M'gladbach	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+5	28
8	Leverkusen	16	7	5	4	+9	26
9	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	4	5	+4	25
10	Werder Bremen	16	6	6	4	+3	24
11	Mainz	16	7	3	6	+2	24
12	Hannover	16	7	3	6	+1	24
13	Freiburg	16	6	6	4	-2	24
14	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	+1	22
15	Hertha	16	5	7	4	+0	22
16	Hamburg	16	5	4	7	-3	19
17	Wolfsburg	16	2	8	6	-5	14
18	FC Koln	16	3	5	8	-8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	1	3	+21	37
2	Leverkusen	16	7	4	5	+4	25
3	Schalke 04	16	7	4	5	+3	25
4	Dortmund	16	6	6	4	+0	24
5	Hertha	16	5	6	5	+3	21
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	3	7	-6	21
7	Augsburg	16	4	7	5	-1	19
8	RB Leipzig	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Hoffenheim	16	4	6	6	-2	18
10	Wolfsburg	16	3	7	6	-7	16
11	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-12	16
12	Werder Bremen	16	3	5	8	-7	14
13	Stuttgart	16	4	2	10	-12	14
14	Hannover	16	2	6	8	-12	12
15	Mainz	16	1	6	9	-16	9
16	Hamburg	16	2	3	11	-19	9
17	Freiburg	16	1	6	9	-22	9
18	FC Koln	16	2	2	12	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.