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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Bolton

U U T S T

0–1

Full-time

Burton Albion

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Burton Albion

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

This season — Championship · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 14%

14%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

48%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,6

Conceded

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

16 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bolton 21. · Burton Albion 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	16	3	3	+25	51
2	Cardiff	21	13	5	3	+16	44
3	Bristol City	21	11	7	3	+12	40
4	Derby	20	11	4	5	+12	37
5	Sheffield United	21	12	1	8	+8	37
6	Aston Villa	19	9	6	4	+10	33
7	Leeds	21	10	3	8	+7	33
8	Ipswich	21	10	2	9	+3	32
9	Preston	21	8	8	5	+3	32
10	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+7	31
11	Nott'm Forest	21	10	0	11	-4	30
12	Fulham	19	7	7	5	+1	28
13	Brentford	21	6	9	6	+3	27
14	Reading	21	7	6	8	+2	27
15	Sheffield Weds	22	6	9	7	-1	27
16	Norwich	21	7	6	8	-6	27
17	Millwall	21	5	8	8	+1	23
18	Hull	21	5	7	9	-2	22
19	QPR	21	5	7	9	-9	22
20	Barnsley	21	5	5	11	-10	20
21	Bolton	21	3	7	11	-19	16
22	Birmingham	21	4	4	13	-20	16
23	Sunderland	21	2	9	10	-12	15
24	Burton Albion	21	3	5	13	-27	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	11	8	2	1	+14	26
2	Cardiff	10	7	3	0	+14	24
3	Sheffield United	11	7	1	3	+8	22
4	Nott'm Forest	11	7	0	4	+4	21
5	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+4	20
6	Ipswich	10	6	1	3	+8	19
7	Derby	10	6	1	3	+8	19
8	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+6	18
9	Bristol City	10	5	3	2	+5	18
10	QPR	11	5	3	3	+2	18
11	Millwall	10	5	2	3	+6	17
12	Sheffield Weds	11	4	5	2	+4	17
13	Preston	10	4	4	2	+3	16
14	Leeds	10	4	3	3	+6	15
15	Brentford	10	3	6	1	+4	15
16	Hull	11	4	2	5	+7	14
17	Norwich	11	3	5	3	+0	14
18	Fulham	10	3	5	2	+0	14
19	Birmingham	10	4	2	4	-3	14
20	Reading	11	3	4	4	+0	13
21	Bolton	10	3	2	5	-5	11
22	Barnsley	11	3	2	6	-5	11
23	Burton Albion	11	2	1	8	-15	7
24	Sunderland	10	0	4	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Bristol City	11	6	4	1	+7	22
3	Cardiff	11	6	2	3	+2	20
4	Derby	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+1	18
6	Preston	11	4	4	3	+0	16
7	Aston Villa	10	4	3	3	+4	15
8	Sheffield United	10	5	0	5	+0	15
9	Reading	10	4	2	4	+2	14
10	Fulham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
11	Ipswich	11	4	1	6	-5	13
12	Norwich	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Brentford	11	3	3	5	-1	12
14	Middlesbrough	9	3	2	4	+3	11
15	Sunderland	11	2	5	4	-4	11
16	Sheffield Weds	11	2	4	5	-5	10
17	Barnsley	10	2	3	5	-5	9
18	Nott'm Forest	10	3	0	7	-8	9
19	Hull	10	1	5	4	-9	8
20	Burton Albion	10	1	4	5	-12	7
21	Millwall	11	0	6	5	-5	6
22	Bolton	11	0	5	6	-14	5
23	QPR	10	0	4	6	-11	4
24	Birmingham	11	0	2	9	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.