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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Burton Albion

T T U U T

3–1

Full-time

Derby

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burton Albion Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,2

This season — Championship · 42/39 matches

Win Ø 32%

17%

46%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 43%

45%

41%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

10 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burton Albion 24. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	42	28	8	6	+40	92
2	Cardiff	41	24	8	9	+27	80
3	Fulham	39	22	11	6	+31	77
4	Aston Villa	40	21	9	10	+25	72
5	Millwall	43	18	15	10	+15	69
6	Derby	39	18	13	8	+21	67
7	Sheffield United	43	19	9	15	+8	66
8	Middlesbrough	40	19	8	13	+19	65
9	Bristol City	42	17	14	11	+11	65
10	Brentford	42	17	13	12	+11	64
11	Preston	42	16	15	11	+8	63
12	Ipswich	42	16	8	18	-2	56
13	Norwich	42	14	14	14	-6	56
14	Leeds	43	15	9	19	-7	54
15	QPR	42	14	11	17	-10	53
16	Hull	42	11	14	17	+3	47
17	Sheffield Weds	42	11	14	17	-9	47
18	Nott'm Forest	41	13	7	21	-16	46
19	Reading	42	10	12	20	-15	42
20	Birmingham	42	11	7	24	-29	40
21	Bolton	42	9	12	21	-30	39
22	Barnsley	41	8	13	20	-19	37
23	Sunderland	42	6	15	21	-29	33
24	Burton Albion	42	7	11	24	-47	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	21	15	4	2	+27	49
2	Cardiff	21	15	3	3	+23	48
3	Aston Villa	20	13	5	2	+22	44
4	Fulham	20	12	6	2	+22	42
5	Sheffield United	22	12	5	5	+14	41
6	Millwall	21	11	7	3	+14	40
7	Middlesbrough	20	12	3	5	+14	39
8	Bristol City	21	11	5	5	+14	38
9	QPR	21	11	5	5	+6	38
10	Derby	19	10	5	4	+16	35
11	Brentford	21	8	10	3	+12	34
12	Ipswich	21	9	5	7	+6	32
13	Preston	21	8	7	6	+4	31
14	Leeds	21	8	6	7	+2	30
15	Hull	21	7	8	6	+12	29
16	Norwich	21	7	8	6	+1	29
17	Bolton	21	8	4	9	-5	28
18	Birmingham	21	8	3	10	-6	27
19	Nott'm Forest	20	8	2	10	-6	26
20	Sheffield Weds	21	6	7	8	-1	25
21	Reading	21	5	7	9	-6	22
22	Barnsley	21	4	8	9	-9	20
23	Sunderland	21	2	7	12	-18	13
24	Burton Albion	21	2	5	14	-28	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	21	13	4	4	+13	43
2	Fulham	19	10	5	4	+9	35
3	Derby	20	8	8	4	+5	32
4	Preston	21	8	8	5	+4	32
5	Cardiff	20	9	5	6	+4	32
6	Brentford	21	9	3	9	-1	30
7	Millwall	22	7	8	7	+1	29
8	Aston Villa	20	8	4	8	+3	28
9	Bristol City	21	6	9	6	-3	27
10	Norwich	21	7	6	8	-7	27
11	Middlesbrough	20	7	5	8	+5	26
12	Sheffield United	21	7	4	10	-6	25
13	Ipswich	21	7	3	11	-8	24
14	Leeds	22	7	3	12	-9	24
15	Sheffield Weds	21	5	7	9	-8	22
16	Burton Albion	21	5	6	10	-19	21
17	Reading	21	5	5	11	-9	20
18	Nott'm Forest	21	5	5	11	-10	20
19	Sunderland	21	4	8	9	-11	20
20	Hull	21	4	6	11	-9	18
21	Barnsley	20	4	5	11	-10	17
22	QPR	21	3	6	12	-16	15
23	Birmingham	21	3	4	14	-23	13
24	Bolton	21	1	8	12	-25	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.