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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Chelsea

S S T U U

3–0

Full-time

Watford

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 48%

56%

39%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

56%

61%

Both score Ø 53%

44%

61%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

19 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 4. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	37	29	7	1	+65	94
2	Man City	36	30	2	4	+68	92
3	Tottenham	37	23	1	13	+28	70
4	Chelsea	36	20	8	8	+21	68
5	Arsenal	36	20	6	10	+20	66
6	Man United	36	19	8	9	+13	65
7	Wolves	37	16	9	12	+3	57
8	Everton	37	15	8	14	+8	53
9	Leicester	36	15	6	15	+4	51
10	Watford	36	14	8	14	-1	50
11	West Ham	37	14	7	16	-6	49
12	Crystal Palace	37	13	7	17	-4	46
13	Bournemouth	37	13	6	18	-12	45
14	Newcastle	37	11	9	17	-10	42
15	Burnley	37	11	7	19	-21	40
16	Southampton	37	9	11	17	-20	38
17	Brighton	36	9	8	19	-22	35
18	Cardiff	37	9	4	24	-37	31
19	Fulham	37	7	5	25	-43	26
20	Huddersfield	36	3	5	28	-54	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	17	0	1	+44	51
2	Liverpool	18	16	2	0	+43	50
3	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+26	44
4	Chelsea	18	11	6	1	+24	39
5	Tottenham	18	12	1	5	+18	37
6	Man United	18	10	6	2	+10	36
7	Everton	19	10	4	5	+9	34
8	Wolves	19	10	4	5	+7	34
9	West Ham	19	9	4	6	+5	31
10	Bournemouth	19	8	5	6	+5	29
11	Watford	18	8	3	7	+1	27
12	Leicester	18	8	2	8	+4	26
13	Newcastle	19	8	1	10	-1	25
14	Burnley	18	7	2	9	-6	23
15	Brighton	18	6	5	7	-6	23
16	Southampton	18	5	7	6	-3	22
17	Fulham	18	6	3	9	-10	21
18	Cardiff	19	6	2	11	-17	20
19	Crystal Palace	18	4	5	9	-6	17
20	Huddersfield	18	2	2	14	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	13	5	1	+22	44
2	Man City	18	13	2	3	+24	41
3	Tottenham	19	11	0	8	+10	33
4	Man United	18	9	2	7	+3	29
5	Crystal Palace	19	9	2	8	+2	29
6	Chelsea	18	9	2	7	-3	29
7	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Watford	18	6	5	7	-2	23
9	Wolves	18	6	5	7	-4	23
10	Arsenal	18	6	4	8	-6	22
11	Everton	18	5	4	9	-1	19
12	West Ham	18	5	3	10	-11	18
13	Newcastle	18	3	8	7	-9	17
14	Burnley	19	4	5	10	-15	17
15	Bournemouth	18	5	1	12	-17	16
16	Southampton	19	4	4	11	-17	16
17	Brighton	18	3	3	12	-16	12
18	Cardiff	18	3	2	13	-20	11
19	Huddersfield	18	1	3	14	-33	6
20	Fulham	19	1	2	16	-33	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.