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Premier League

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Brighton

U T T T U

1–3

Full-time

Burnley

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 26%

28%

24%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

48%

56%

Both score Ø 54%

56%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

68% Possession 32%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 14. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	20	5	1	+44	65
2	Man City	26	20	2	4	+48	62
3	Tottenham	25	19	0	6	+27	57
4	Man United	26	15	6	5	+17	51
5	Chelsea	25	15	5	5	+22	50
6	Arsenal	26	15	5	6	+16	50
7	Wolves	25	11	5	9	+1	38
8	Watford	26	10	7	9	+0	37
9	Everton	27	9	6	12	-3	33
10	West Ham	26	9	6	11	-7	33
11	Bournemouth	26	10	3	13	-10	33
12	Leicester	25	9	5	11	-1	32
13	Crystal Palace	26	7	6	13	-7	27
14	Brighton	25	7	6	12	-9	27
15	Cardiff	26	7	4	15	-23	25
16	Newcastle	25	6	6	13	-12	24
17	Southampton	26	5	9	12	-16	24
18	Burnley	25	6	6	13	-20	24
19	Fulham	26	4	5	17	-33	17
20	Huddersfield	26	2	5	19	-34	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	12	0	1	+32	36
2	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+28	35
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Chelsea	13	8	4	1	+17	28
5	Man United	12	7	4	1	+9	25
6	Tottenham	12	8	0	4	+10	24
7	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+8	24
8	Everton	14	6	3	5	+0	21
9	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	Watford	13	6	2	5	-1	20
11	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+3	19
12	West Ham	13	5	3	5	-1	18
13	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-8	17
14	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	15
15	Leicester	12	4	2	6	+0	14
16	Burnley	12	4	2	6	-7	14
17	Crystal Palace	13	3	4	6	-3	13
18	Newcastle	13	4	1	8	-6	13
19	Southampton	13	2	6	5	-6	12
20	Huddersfield	14	1	2	11	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	13	11	0	2	+17	33
2	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Man City	13	8	2	3	+16	26
4	Man United	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Chelsea	12	7	1	4	+5	22
6	Wolves	12	5	3	4	+0	18
7	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	-1	18
8	Leicester	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	Watford	13	4	5	4	+1	17
10	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Crystal Palace	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Everton	13	3	3	7	-3	12
13	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-10	12
14	Newcastle	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	Bournemouth	13	3	0	10	-18	9
17	Brighton	13	2	2	9	-12	8
18	Cardiff	13	2	2	9	-15	8
19	Huddersfield	12	1	3	8	-18	6
20	Fulham	13	0	2	11	-24	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.