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Premier League

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Arsenal

S S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,7

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,7

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 39%

53%

24%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%

23 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 7. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	16	1	0	+41	49
2	Man United	17	12	2	3	+26	38
3	Chelsea	17	11	2	4	+17	35
4	Tottenham	17	9	4	4	+16	31
5	Liverpool	17	8	7	2	+14	31
6	Burnley	17	9	4	4	+4	31
7	Arsenal	17	9	3	5	+10	30
8	Leicester	18	7	5	6	+1	26
9	Watford	17	6	4	7	-3	22
10	Everton	17	6	4	7	-8	22
11	Southampton	17	4	6	7	-6	18
12	Huddersfield	17	5	3	9	-17	18
13	Brighton	17	4	5	8	-9	17
14	Crystal Palace	18	4	5	9	-13	17
15	Bournemouth	17	4	4	9	-5	16
16	Stoke	17	4	4	9	-17	16
17	Newcastle	17	4	3	10	-10	15
18	West Brom	17	2	8	7	-10	14
19	West Ham	17	3	5	9	-18	14
20	Swansea	17	3	3	11	-13	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	9	8	0	1	+19	24
2	Man City	8	7	1	0	+22	22
3	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	+14	21
4	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+10	18
5	Liverpool	9	4	5	0	+11	17
6	Burnley	9	5	2	2	+4	17
7	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
8	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
9	Huddersfield	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Leicester	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Southampton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	12
13	West Ham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
14	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-5	11
15	Brighton	8	2	4	2	-3	10
16	Newcastle	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Watford	8	2	3	3	-6	9
18	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
20	Swansea	9	2	1	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+19	27
2	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+7	14
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
7	Watford	9	4	1	4	+3	13
8	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Arsenal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
10	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-5	8
11	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-6	7
12	Everton	9	1	4	4	-10	7
13	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6
14	West Brom	9	1	3	5	-6	6
15	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
16	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Crystal Palace	9	1	2	6	-10	5
18	Stoke	9	1	2	6	-12	5
19	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-15	4
20	West Ham	9	0	3	6	-15	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.