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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Arsenal

S S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

63%

21%

Points per game

2,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 1. · Newcastle 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	19	12	3	4	+15	39
2	Leicester	19	11	6	2	+12	39
3	Man City	19	11	3	5	+17	36
4	Tottenham	19	9	8	2	+18	35
5	West Ham	20	8	8	4	+7	32
6	Crystal Palace	19	9	4	6	+7	31
7	Man United	19	8	6	5	+6	30
8	Liverpool	20	8	6	6	-2	30
9	Watford	19	8	5	6	+4	29
10	Stoke	19	8	5	6	+1	29
11	Everton	19	6	8	5	+7	26
12	Southampton	19	6	6	7	+3	24
13	West Brom	19	6	5	8	-6	23
14	Chelsea	19	5	5	9	-6	20
15	Norwich	19	5	5	9	-10	20
16	Bournemouth	19	5	5	9	-12	20
17	Swansea	19	4	7	8	-8	19
18	Newcastle	19	4	5	10	-15	17
19	Sunderland	19	3	3	13	-19	12
20	Aston Villa	19	1	5	13	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	0	2	+17	24
2	Arsenal	9	6	2	1	+9	20
3	Tottenham	10	5	4	1	+11	19
4	Leicester	9	5	3	1	+3	18
5	Man United	9	4	4	1	+7	16
6	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
7	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+0	15
8	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+4	14
9	Crystal Palace	10	4	2	4	+3	14
10	Watford	10	4	2	4	+2	14
11	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Stoke	9	4	1	4	+1	13
13	Swansea	10	3	4	3	-3	13
14	Everton	10	3	3	4	+3	12
15	Norwich	9	3	3	3	+1	12
16	West Brom	10	3	2	5	-4	11
17	Newcastle	10	2	4	4	+0	10
18	Bournemouth	9	2	4	3	-3	10
19	Sunderland	9	2	2	5	-1	8
20	Aston Villa	9	0	3	6	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	10	6	3	1	+9	21
2	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
3	Crystal Palace	9	5	2	2	+4	17
4	Tottenham	9	4	4	1	+7	16
5	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+3	16
6	Stoke	10	4	4	2	+0	16
7	Watford	9	4	3	2	+2	15
8	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
9	Everton	9	3	5	1	+4	14
10	Man United	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Man City	9	3	3	3	+0	12
12	West Brom	9	3	3	3	-2	12
13	Southampton	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Bournemouth	10	3	1	6	-9	10
15	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-11	8
16	Newcastle	9	2	1	6	-15	7
17	Swansea	9	1	3	5	-5	6
18	Chelsea	9	1	3	5	-7	6
19	Aston Villa	10	1	2	7	-12	5
20	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.