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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Liverpool

U U S T S

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 31%

38%

23%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 10. · Swansea 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	9	2	3	+16	29
2	Leicester	14	8	5	1	+8	29
3	Man United	14	8	4	2	+10	28
4	Arsenal	13	8	2	3	+12	26
5	Tottenham	14	6	7	1	+13	25
6	Crystal Palace	14	7	1	6	+5	22
7	West Ham	14	6	4	4	+4	22
8	Everton	14	5	6	3	+8	21
9	Southampton	14	5	5	4	+3	20
10	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+2	20
11	Watford	14	5	4	5	-1	19
12	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-3	19
13	West Brom	14	5	3	6	-5	18
14	Chelsea	14	4	3	7	-6	15
15	Swansea	13	3	5	5	-4	14
16	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Sunderland	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Bournemouth	14	2	4	8	-13	10
19	Newcastle	14	2	4	8	-16	10
20	Aston Villa	14	1	2	11	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	0	2	+13	18
2	Tottenham	8	4	4	0	+9	16
3	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Leicester	7	4	2	1	+2	14
5	Everton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Southampton	7	3	1	3	+2	10
8	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	+2	10
9	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	+0	10
10	West Ham	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	9
12	Sunderland	7	2	2	3	+1	8
13	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-2	8
14	Watford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Norwich	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	West Brom	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-1	6
19	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	0	2	+8	15
2	Leicester	7	4	3	0	+6	15
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+2	14
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+3	13
5	Liverpool	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Crystal Palace	6	4	0	2	+3	12
7	Stoke	8	3	3	2	-1	12
8	Man City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
9	Watford	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	West Brom	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Everton	7	2	4	1	+3	10
12	Southampton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
13	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+4	9
14	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Chelsea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Bournemouth	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-11	4
19	Newcastle	7	1	1	5	-15	4
20	Aston Villa	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.