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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Empoli

S U S T U

1–0

Full-time

Lazio

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

31%

46%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

54%

62%

Both score Ø 54%

62%

46%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

5 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 8

3 Offside 7

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Empoli 16. · Lazio 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	3	1	+9	30
2	Napoli	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Fiorentina	13	9	1	3	+15	28
4	Roma	14	8	3	3	+12	27
5	Milan	14	7	2	5	+1	23
6	Sassuolo	13	6	4	3	+3	22
7	Juventus	13	6	3	4	+6	21
8	Torino	14	6	3	5	+2	21
9	Atalanta	14	6	3	5	+0	21
10	Lazio	13	6	1	6	-4	19
11	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-3	18
12	Chievo	14	4	4	6	+2	16
13	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-2	16
14	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-4	16
15	Palermo	13	4	3	6	-4	15
16	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Frosinone	14	4	2	8	-10	14
18	Bologna	14	4	1	9	-6	13
19	Carpi	14	2	3	9	-14	9
20	Verona	14	0	6	8	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	7	5	1	1	+10	16
2	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+10	16
3	Roma	7	5	1	1	+9	16
4	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+8	16
5	Inter	7	5	1	1	+5	16
6	Milan	7	5	1	1	+3	16
7	Sampdoria	7	4	2	1	+7	14
8	Torino	7	4	2	1	+6	14
9	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+5	14
10	Sassuolo	6	4	2	0	+4	14
11	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+6	13
12	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+3	13
13	Genoa	7	4	1	2	+2	13
14	Chievo	7	2	2	3	+2	8
15	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-1	8
16	Palermo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	Bologna	7	2	1	4	+0	7
18	Empoli	6	2	1	3	-2	7
19	Carpi	7	1	2	4	-3	5
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	2	0	+4	14
2	Napoli	7	3	3	1	+6	12
3	Fiorentina	6	4	0	2	+5	12
4	Roma	7	3	2	2	+3	11
5	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	10
6	Chievo	7	2	2	3	+0	8
7	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-1	8
8	Empoli	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Atalanta	8	2	2	4	-6	8
10	Juventus	6	2	1	3	+1	7
11	Milan	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Palermo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Torino	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Bologna	7	2	0	5	-6	6
15	Carpi	7	1	1	5	-11	4
16	Genoa	7	0	3	4	-6	3
17	Verona	7	0	3	4	-7	3
18	Lazio	6	1	0	5	-12	3
19	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Frosinone	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.