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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Newcastle

T T T U T

6–2

Full-time

Norwich

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 69%

50%

88%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 20. · Norwich 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+16	21
2	Arsenal	9	6	1	2	+9	19
3	Man United	9	6	1	2	+7	19
4	West Ham	9	5	2	2	+8	17
5	Leicester	9	4	4	1	+2	16
6	Crystal Palace	9	5	0	4	+2	15
7	Tottenham	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+3	13
9	Everton	9	3	4	2	+1	13
10	Liverpool	9	3	4	2	-2	13
11	Chelsea	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	West Brom	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	Swansea	8	2	4	2	+0	10
14	Watford	9	2	4	3	-4	10
15	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-2	9
17	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4
19	Sunderland	9	0	3	6	-11	3
20	Newcastle	8	0	3	5	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	4	0	1	+13	12
2	Man United	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Southampton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
7	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
10	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
11	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Watford	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Sunderland	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+2	9
6	Man United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Everton	4	2	2	0	+4	8
8	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Southampton	4	1	3	0	+2	6
10	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-1	6
11	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Norwich	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Stoke	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Swansea	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.