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Conference League
Referee: J Beaton
Fiorentina
T T S T T
3–1
Full-time
Panathinaikos
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Panathinaikos
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 50%
44%
55%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
67%
55%
Both score Ø 67%
78%
55%
Average goals
4,2
2,9
Scored
2,7
1,7
Conceded
1,6
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,73 xG 1,75
50% Possession 50%
16 Shots 18
9 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 12
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
26 Free kicks against 19
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Mar -25 Panathinaikos – Fiorentina 3–2

Match report

Fiorentina Panathinaikos
1–0 R. Mandragora ⚽
12′
2–0 A. Guðmundsson ⚽
L. Ranieri
24′
27′
🟨 Filip Mladenović
Half-time 2–0
57′
🔁 F. Ioannidis
↦ F. Đuričić
L. Beltrán 🔁
↦ A. Guðmundsson
60′
M. Folorunsho 🔁
↦ D. Cataldi
61′
Pietro Comuzzo 🟨
70′
Marin Pongračić 🟨
74′
74′
🟨 Karol Świderski
75′
🔁 A. Jeremejeff
↦ K. Świderski
3–0 M. Kean ⚽
75′
Moise Kean 🟨
77′
N. Zaniolo 🔁
↦ L. Ranieri
79′
Y. Adli 🔁
↦ R. Mandragora
79′
81′
⚽ F. Ioannidis 3–1
83′
🟨 Giorgos Vagiannidis
87′
🔁 A. Gnezda Čerin
↦ Willian Arão
87′
🔁 F. Pellistri
↦ Tetê
Nicolò Zaniolo 🟨
91′
93′
🟨 Filip Mladenović
93′
🟥 Filip Mladenović
M. Moreno 🔁
↦ Dodô
94′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Fiorentina

3-5-1-1
43 David de Gea G
5 M. Pongračić D
15 P. Comuzzo D
6 L. Ranieri D
2 Dodô M
8 R. Mandragora M
32 D. Cataldi M
44 N. Fagioli M
21 R. Gosens M
10 A. Guðmundsson F
20 M. Kean F
Bench (11)
9 L. Beltrán
90 M. Folorunsho
17 N. Zaniolo
29 Y. Adli
22 M. Moreno
63 M. Caprini
30 T. Martinelli
1 P. Terracciano
24 A. Richardson
65 F. Parisi
61 L. Baroncelli

Coach: R. Palladino

Panathinaikos

4-3-3
69 B. Drągowski G
2 G. Vagiannidis D
55 Willian Arão D
15 S. Ingason D
25 F. Mladenović D
8 A. Ounahi M
24 M. Siopis M
20 N. Maksimović M
10 Tetê F
19 K. Świderski F
31 F. Đuričić F
Bench (12)
7 F. Ioannidis
29 A. Jeremejeff
16 A. Gnezda Čerin
28 F. Pellistri
26 E. Fikaj
21 T. Jedvaj
3 P. Max
81 K. Lilo
80 T. Dabizas
1 Y. Lodygin
30 A. Bregou
17 D. Mancini

Coach: Rui Vitória

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Beaton · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.