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Conference League
Referee: M Barbu
HJK Helsinki
T T T T S
2–3
Full-time
PAOK
S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

HJK Helsinki PAOK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
1,8
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
This season — Conference League · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,5
2,2
Conceded
1,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,35 xG 2,20
44% Possession 56%
8 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 10
1 Blocked shots 1
7 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 8
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

HJK Helsinki PAOK
J. Öst 🔁
↦ N. Mäenpää
13′
1–0 H. Bandé ⚽
L. Lingman
35′
Half-time 1–1
55′
⚽ K. Koulierakis 1–1
K. Despodov
Përparim Hetemaj 🟨
61′
K. Kouassivi-Benissan 🔁
↦ H. Bandé
62′
A. Tanaka 🔁
↦ P. Hetemaj
62′
T. Keskinen 🔁
↦ N. Hämäläinen
62′
64′
🟨 Kiril Despodov
67′
🔁 M. Ozdoev
↦ T. Tsingaras
67′
🔁 Taison
↦ A. Živković
74′
🔁 G. Konstantelias
↦ T. Murg
75′
🔁 Brandon Thomas
↦ M. Samatta
A. Paananen 🔁
↦ G. Kanellópoulos
76′
81′
⚽ K. Despodov 1–2
A. Baba
85′
🔁 Vieirinha
↦ K. Despodov
94′
⚽ Brandon Thomas 1–3
Taison
Topi Keskinen ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
97′
2–3 B. Radulović ⚽
99′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

3-4-3
85 N. Mäenpää G
4 J. Toivio D
5 Kristopher Da Graca D
22 J. Raitala D
23 P. Soiri M
10 L. Lingman M
24 G. Kanellópoulos M
3 N. Hämäläinen M
56 P. Hetemaj F
9 B. Radulović F
17 H. Bandé F
Bench (12)
1 J. Öst
27 K. Kouassivi-Benissan
37 A. Tanaka
18 T. Keskinen
19 A. Paananen
11 R. Riski
2 T. Ollila
78 A. Ramula
29 A. Olusanya
46 O. Pettersson
7 S. Hostikka
8 F. Rogić

Coach: T. Korkeakunnas

PAOK

4-2-3-1
42 D. Kotarski G
16 T. Kędziora D
15 W. Troost-Ekong D
4 K. Koulierakis D
21 A. Baba D
6 T. Tsingaras M
22 S. Schwab M
14 A. Živković M
10 T. Murg M
77 K. Despodov M
33 M. Samatta F
Bench (12)
27 M. Ozdoev
11 Taison
7 G. Konstantelias
71 Brandon Thomas
20 Vieirinha
18 Ž. Živković
5 G. Michailidis
95 S. Tzimas
8 S. Meïté
29 G. Vrakas
19 L. Lyratzis
55 Rafa Soares

Coach: R. Lucescu

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Barbu · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.