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Europa League
Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
Ludogorets
S T T T S
3–3
Full-time
PAOK
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ludogorets PAOK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
4,0
3,5
Scored
2,0
2,3
Conceded
2,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/9 matches
Win Ø 44%
43%
44%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
86%
44%
Both score Ø 60%
86%
33%
Average goals
3,9
2,7
Scored
1,9
1,8
Conceded
2,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,18 xG 3,40
43% Possession 57%
15 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 8
5 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 4
1 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ludogorets PAOK
1–0 P. Stanic ⚽
33′
39′
⚽ K. Despodov 1–1
L. Ivanusec
Half-time 1–1
Olivier Verdon 🟨
47′
48′
⚽ A. Vogliacco 1–2
K. Despodov
Yves Erick Bile 🟨
53′
61′
🔁 G. Konstantelias
↦ L. Ivanusec
I. Chochev 🔁
↦ E. Bile
66′
68′
🔁 M. Camara
↦ M. Ozdoev
68′
🔁 A. Zivkovic
↦ Taison
68′
🔁 A. Mythou
↦ F. Chalov
69′
🟨 Mady Camara
2–2 O. Verdon ⚽
D. Almeida
70′
Erick Marcus 🔁
↦ Caio Vidal
72′
I. Yordanov 🔁
↦ F. Kaloc
72′
3–2 I. Chochev ⚽
P. Stanic
77′
Ivajlo Chochev 🟨
81′
85′
🔁 A. Bianco
↦ S. Meite
M. Machado 🔁
↦ B. Tekpetey
90′
90′
⚽ A. Mythou 3–3
G. Konstantelias
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-4-2
39 H. Bonmann G
17 Son D
24 O. Verdon D
4 D. Almeida D
3 A. Nedyalkov D
37 B. Tekpetey M
26 F. Kaloc M
23 D. Duarte M
11 Caio Vidal M
29 E. Bile F
14 P. Stanic F
Bench (10)
1 S. Padt
67 D. Hristov
10 M. Machado
18 I. Chochev
42 S. Shishkov
55 I. Nachmias
77 Erick Marcus
80 M. Stefanov
81 G. Penev
82 I. Yordanov

Coach: Per-Mathias Hogmo

PAOK

4-2-3-1
1 J. Pavlenka G
3 J. Kenny D
16 T. Kedziora D
4 A. Vogliacco D
21 A. R. Baba D
27 M. Ozdoev M
8 S. Meite M
77 K. Despodov M
18 L. Ivanusec M
11 Taison M
9 F. Chalov F
Bench (12)
41 D. Monastirlis
99 A. Tsiftsis
2 M. Camara
14 A. Zivkovic
22 A. Bianco
25 K. Thymianis
32 G. Taylor
33 D. Tsopouroglou
39 D. Berdos
52 D. Chatsidis
56 A. Mythou
65 G. Konstantelias

Coach: Razvan Lucescu

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.