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Champions League
Referee: E Eskas
Ath Madrid
U S T S S
3–1
Full-time
St. Gilloise
T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid St. Gilloise
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,0
3,7
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
5,0
4,0
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
2,7
3,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,30 xG 1,11
67% Possession 33%
14 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 1
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ath Madrid St. Gilloise
J. M. Gimenez 🔁
↦ R. Le Normand
26′
1–0 J. Alvarez ⚽
G. Simeone
39′
45′
🟨 Kamiel Van de Perre
Half-time 1–0
Antoine Griezmann ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
48′
60′
🔁 P. David
↦ R. Schoofs
C. Gallagher 🔁
↦ A. Baena
62′
A. Sorloth 🔁
↦ A. Griezmann
62′
T. Almada 🔁
↦ Koke
62′
66′
🟨 Ousseynou Niang
Nahuel Molina 🟨
68′
2–0 C. Gallagher ⚽
72′
74′
🔁 M. Rasmussen
↦ K. Van De Perre
74′
🔁 M. Giger
↦ K. Rodriguez
74′
🔁 S. Boufal
↦ A. Ait El Hadj
80′
⚽ R. Sykes 2–1
S. Boufal
81′
🟨 Kevin Mac Allister
85′
🔁 L. Patris
↦ A. Khalaili
M. Llorente 🔁
↦ G. Simeone
88′
3–1 M. Llorente ⚽
T. Almada
90′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
16 N. Molina D
24 R. Le Normand D
17 D. Hancko D
3 M. Ruggeri D
20 G. Simeone M
8 P. Barrios M
6 Koke M
10 A. Baena M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
31 S. Esquivel
2 J. M. Gimenez
4 C. Gallagher
5 J. Cardoso
9 A. Sorloth
11 T. Almada
15 C. Lenglet
18 M. Pubill
21 J. Galan
22 G. Raspadori
12 C. Martin
14 M. Llorente

Coach: Diego Simeone

St. Gilloise

3-5-1-1
37 K. Scherpen G
5 K. Mac Allister D
16 C. Burgess D
26 R. Sykes D
25 A. Khalaili M
8 A. Zorgane M
6 K. Van De Perre M
17 R. Schoofs M
22 O. Niang M
10 A. Ait El Hadj F
13 K. Rodriguez F
Bench (10)
1 V. Chambaere
3 M. T. Barry
4 M. Rasmussen
11 Guilherme Smith
12 P. David
20 M. Giger
23 S. Boufal
27 L. Patris
30 R. Florucz
48 F. Leysen

Coach: David Hubert

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Eskas · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.