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Champions League
Referee: Gil Manzano
Milan
U S S S T
2–1
Full-time
FK Crvena Zvezda
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan FK Crvena Zvezda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,0
4,7
Scored
2,7
1,8
Conceded
1,3
2,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/7 matches
Win Ø 45%
60%
29%
Points per game
1,8
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
80%
86%
Both score Ø 76%
80%
71%
Average goals
3,6
4,4
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
1,6
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,00 xG 0,49
52% Possession 48%
20 Shots 9
10 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 8
6 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Milan FK Crvena Zvezda
Fikayo Tomori 🟨
-5′
S. Chukwueze 🔁
↦ R. Loftus-Cheek
28′
T. Abraham 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
29′
Yunus Musah 🟨
32′
33′
🟨 Rade Krunić
1–0 Rafael Leão ⚽
Y. Fofana
42′
Theo Hernández 🟨
45′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Ivanić
↦ Milson
60′
🔁 N. Radonjić
↦ A. Maksimović
67′
⚽ N. Radonjić 1–1
75′
🔁 G. Kanga
↦ O. Mimović
81′
🟨 Nasser Djiga
Emerson Royal 🔁
↦ D. Calabria
83′
F. Camarda 🔁
↦ Y. Musah
83′
86′
🔁 Bruno Duarte
↦ C. Ndiaye
2–1 T. Abraham ⚽
87′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
46 M. Gabbia D
28 M. Thiaw D
19 T. Hernández D
29 Y. Fofana M
14 T. Reijnders M
80 Y. Musah M
8 R. Loftus-Cheek M
10 Rafael Leão M
7 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (9)
21 S. Chukwueze
90 T. Abraham
22 Emerson Royal
73 F. Camarda
57 M. Sportiello
96 L. Torriani
31 S. Pavlović
42 F. Terracciano
23 F. Tomori

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

FK Crvena Zvezda

4-2-3-1
77 I. Guteša G
70 O. Mimović D
24 N. Djiga D
5 U. Spajić D
66 Seol Young-Woo D
6 R. Krunić M
21 T. Elšnik M
15 S. Katompa Mvumpa M
55 A. Maksimović M
27 Milson M
9 C. Ndiaye F
Bench (12)
4 M. Ivanić
49 N. Radonjić
8 G. Kanga
17 Bruno Duarte
10 A. Katai
23 M. Rodić
32 L. Ilić
1 M. Ilić
33 V. Drkušić
22 Dálcio
25 S. Leković
18 O. Glazer

Coach: V. Milojević

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Gil Manzano · 26 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.