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Championship

Referee: L Doughty

Hull

T T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Watford

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hull Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 19/18 matches

Win Ø 33%

16%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

32%

61%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,51 xG 1,11

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hull 24. · Watford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	20	12	5	3	+22	+20.4	41
2	Burnley	20	10	8	2	+17	+7.0	38
3	Sunderland	18	10	6	2	+15	+4.9	36
4	Sheffield United	17	10	5	2	+14	+7.8	35
5	Blackburn	19	10	4	5	+6	-0.1	34
6	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+9	+15.5	31
7	Watford	18	9	3	6	+2	-2.9	30
8	West Brom	19	6	11	2	+7	+4.4	29
9	Swansea	20	7	6	7	+2	+0.0	27
10	Norwich	20	6	8	6	+5	+3.1	26
11	Bristol City	19	6	8	5	+1	+1.1	26
12	Sheffield Weds	20	7	5	8	-6	-3.1	26
13	Millwall	18	6	7	5	+4	+7.2	25
14	Luton	20	6	4	10	-12	-2.3	22
15	Derby	20	5	6	9	-4	-0.6	21
16	Stoke	20	5	6	9	-5	-11.8	21
17	Coventry	18	5	5	8	-2	+8.3	20
18	Preston	19	3	10	6	-8	-1.3	19
19	Oxford	18	4	6	8	-8	-11.2	18
20	QPR	19	3	9	7	-8	-4.8	18
21	Portsmouth	18	3	8	7	-9	-7.9	17
22	Cardiff	18	4	5	9	-11	-8.5	17
23	Plymouth	19	4	5	10	-21	-22.9	17
24	Hull	19	3	6	10	-10	-2.3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	11	9	1	1	+19	+14.9	28
2	Watford	9	7	2	0	+9	+1.4	23
3	Sheffield United	8	7	1	0	+11	+9.3	22
4	Sunderland	9	6	3	0	+11	+5.8	21
5	Burnley	10	5	5	0	+10	+4.2	20
6	Blackburn	9	6	1	2	+6	+2.5	19
7	Luton	11	5	3	3	+2	+2.7	18
8	Millwall	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.8	17
9	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+4	+8.4	17
10	Norwich	9	4	4	1	+12	+5.0	16
11	Oxford	10	4	4	2	+1	-4.4	16
12	Plymouth	9	4	3	2	+3	-3.0	15
13	Derby	9	4	2	3	+4	+5.9	14
14	Preston	10	3	5	2	+1	+2.6	14
15	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+5	+2.0	13
16	Swansea	9	3	4	2	+3	+6.2	13
17	Stoke	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.5	13
18	Sheffield Weds	11	3	4	4	-2	+1.5	13
19	West Brom	9	2	6	1	+1	+4.3	12
20	Cardiff	9	4	0	5	-1	-2.0	12
21	Coventry	9	3	2	4	+1	+8.3	11
22	Portsmouth	9	2	4	3	-1	+0.5	10
23	QPR	10	1	5	4	-5	+1.1	8
24	Hull	10	1	4	5	-4	+0.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	10	5	3	2	+7	+2.8	18
2	West Brom	10	4	5	1	+6	+0.1	17
3	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
4	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	+0	-2.6	15
5	Middlesbrough	10	4	2	4	+5	+7.1	14
6	Swansea	11	4	2	5	-1	-6.2	14
7	Sheffield United	9	3	4	2	+3	-1.4	13
8	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.5	13
9	Bristol City	11	3	4	4	-4	-0.8	13
10	Sheffield Weds	9	4	1	4	-4	-4.6	13
11	QPR	9	2	4	3	-3	-5.9	10
12	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-7	-1.9	10
13	Coventry	9	2	3	4	-3	-0.0	9
14	Millwall	8	1	5	2	-1	+0.4	8
15	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.1	8
16	Stoke	10	2	2	6	-7	-9.3	8
17	Watford	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.3	7
18	Portsmouth	9	1	4	4	-8	-8.4	7
19	Derby	11	1	4	6	-8	-6.4	7
20	Preston	9	0	5	4	-9	-3.9	5
21	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-10	-6.5	5
22	Luton	9	1	1	7	-14	-5.0	4
23	Oxford	8	0	2	6	-9	-6.8	2
24	Plymouth	10	0	2	8	-24	-19.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.