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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Atalanta
S S S S S
2–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
100%
67%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
2,8
2,2
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
60%
40%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
40%
60%
Both score Ø 40%
20%
60%
Average goals
2,4
3,6
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
0,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,33 xG 2,10
56% Possession 44%
20 Shots 10
9 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
5 Corners 2
2 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Atalanta Real Madrid
10′
⚽ K. Mbappé 0–1
Brahim Díaz
36′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ K. Mbappé
Half-time 0–1
47′
🟨 Aurélien Tchouaméni
1–1 C. De Ketelaere ⚽
47′
56′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 1–2
L. Samardžić 🔁
↦ M. Pašalić
58′
59′
⚽ J. Bellingham 1–3
Vinícius Júnior
2–3 A. Lookman ⚽
L. Samardžić
65′
M. Retegui 🔁
↦ C. De Ketelaere
74′
O. Kossounou 🔁
↦ B. Djimsiti
74′
D. Zappacosta 🔁
↦ R. Bellanova
75′
84′
🔁 Raúl Asencio
↦ Brahim Díaz
84′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ Dani Ceballos
N. Zaniolo 🔁
↦ M. Ruggeri
87′
87′
🔁 A. Güler
↦ J. Bellingham
Odilon Kossounou 🟨
92′
92′
🟨 Lucas Vázquez
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-1-2
29 M. Carnesecchi G
19 B. Djimsiti D
4 I. Hien D
23 S. Kolašinac D
16 R. Bellanova M
15 M. de Roon M
13 Éderson M
22 M. Ruggeri M
8 M. Pašalić F
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
Bench (11)
24 L. Samardžić
32 M. Retegui
3 O. Kossounou
77 D. Zappacosta
10 N. Zaniolo
44 M. Brescianini
27 M. Palestra
31 F. Rossi
28 Rui Patrício
5 B. Godfrey
2 R. Tolói

Coach: G. Gasperini

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
14 A. Tchouaméni D
22 A. Rüdiger D
20 Fran García D
19 Dani Ceballos M
8 F. Valverde M
21 Brahim Díaz M
5 J. Bellingham M
7 Vinícius Júnior M
9 K. Mbappé F
Bench (10)
11 Rodrygo
35 Raúl Asencio
10 L. Modrić
15 A. Güler
29 Y. Lekhedim
18 Jesús Vallejo
36 Chema Andrés
34 Sergio Mestre
13 A. Lunin
16 Endrick

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.