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Championship

Referee: T Nield

Luton

T S T T U

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

58%

37%

Both score Ø 53%

58%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,13 xG 1,25

50% Possession 50%

18 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Stoke 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	19	11	5	3	+20	+19.1	38
2	Burnley	19	10	7	2	+17	+6.6	37
3	Sunderland	17	10	5	2	+15	+3.7	35
4	Sheffield United	17	10	5	2	+14	+7.8	35
5	Middlesbrough	19	9	4	6	+11	+16.8	31
6	Blackburn	18	9	4	5	+5	-0.1	31
7	Watford	18	9	3	6	+2	-2.9	30
8	West Brom	19	6	11	2	+7	+4.4	29
9	Sheffield Weds	19	7	5	7	-5	-3.1	26
10	Norwich	19	6	7	6	+5	+3.7	25
11	Millwall	18	6	7	5	+4	+7.2	25
12	Bristol City	18	6	7	5	+1	+2.3	25
13	Swansea	19	6	6	7	+1	-0.5	24
14	Stoke	19	5	6	8	-4	-10.9	21
15	Coventry	18	5	5	8	-2	+8.3	20
16	Derby	19	5	5	9	-4	-0.2	20
17	Preston	19	3	10	6	-8	-1.3	19
18	Luton	19	5	4	10	-13	-3.2	19
19	Oxford	18	4	6	8	-8	-11.2	18
20	QPR	19	3	9	7	-8	-4.8	18
21	Cardiff	18	4	5	9	-11	-8.5	17
22	Plymouth	18	4	5	9	-20	-22.3	17
23	Portsmouth	17	3	7	7	-9	-8.5	16
24	Hull	19	3	6	10	-10	-2.3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	10	8	1	1	+17	+13.6	25
2	Watford	9	7	2	0	+9	+1.4	23
3	Sheffield United	8	7	1	0	+11	+9.3	22
4	Sunderland	8	6	2	0	+11	+4.6	20
5	Burnley	9	5	4	0	+10	+3.9	19
6	Blackburn	9	6	1	2	+6	+2.5	19
7	Millwall	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.8	17
8	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+4	+8.4	17
9	Norwich	9	4	4	1	+12	+5.0	16
10	Oxford	10	4	4	2	+1	-4.4	16
11	Plymouth	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.5	15
12	Luton	10	4	3	3	+1	+1.9	15
13	Derby	9	4	2	3	+4	+5.9	14
14	Preston	10	3	5	2	+1	+2.6	14
15	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+5	+2.0	13
16	Swansea	9	3	4	2	+3	+6.2	13
17	Stoke	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.5	13
18	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	-1	+1.4	13
19	West Brom	9	2	6	1	+1	+4.3	12
20	Cardiff	9	4	0	5	-1	-2.0	12
21	Coventry	9	3	2	4	+1	+8.3	11
22	Portsmouth	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.1	9
23	QPR	10	1	5	4	-5	+1.1	8
24	Hull	10	1	4	5	-4	+0.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	10	5	3	2	+7	+2.8	18
2	West Brom	10	4	5	1	+6	+0.1	17
3	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
4	Middlesbrough	9	4	2	3	+7	+8.3	14
5	Sheffield United	9	3	4	2	+3	-1.4	13
6	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.5	13
7	Sheffield Weds	9	4	1	4	-4	-4.6	13
8	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	-1	-2.6	12
9	Bristol City	10	3	3	4	-4	+0.4	12
10	Swansea	10	3	2	5	-2	-6.8	11
11	QPR	9	2	4	3	-3	-5.9	10
12	Coventry	9	2	3	4	-3	-0.0	9
13	Norwich	10	2	3	5	-7	-1.3	9
14	Millwall	8	1	5	2	-1	+0.4	8
15	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.1	8
16	Stoke	9	2	2	5	-6	-8.4	8
17	Watford	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.3	7
18	Portsmouth	9	1	4	4	-8	-8.4	7
19	Derby	10	1	3	6	-8	-6.1	6
20	Preston	9	0	5	4	-9	-3.9	5
21	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-10	-6.5	5
22	Luton	9	1	1	7	-14	-5.0	4
23	Oxford	8	0	2	6	-9	-6.8	2
24	Plymouth	10	0	2	8	-24	-19.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.