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Championship
Referee: A Backhouse
Burnley
U T U S S
2–0
Full-time
Coventry
U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Coventry
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
0%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
0,8
3,0
Scored
0,5
1,7
Conceded
0,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 16/15 matches
Win Ø 39%
50%
27%
Points per game
1,9
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
19%
60%
Both score Ø 43%
25%
60%
Average goals
1,6
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
0,4
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,97 xG 0,11
53% Possession 47%
12 Shots 3
3 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 2
0 Offside 5
10 Free kicks against 7
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 4. · Coventry 19.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leeds 16 9 5 2 +16 +17.1 32
2 Sunderland 15 9 4 2 +14 +1.6 31
3 Sheffield United 15 9 4 2 +11 +4.2 31
4 Burnley 16 8 6 2 +13 +3.9 30
5 Middlesbrough 16 8 3 5 +10 +16.6 27
6 West Brom 16 6 8 2 +7 +5.6 26
7 Watford 16 8 2 6 +1 -2.2 26
8 Millwall 16 6 6 4 +5 +8.5 24
9 Blackburn 15 6 4 5 +2 -1.0 22
10 Bristol City 15 5 7 3 +1 +0.3 22
11 Derby 16 5 5 6 +0 -3.3 20
12 Stoke 16 5 5 6 -1 -7.1 20
13 Norwich 16 4 7 5 +1 +1.3 19
14 Swansea 16 5 4 7 +0 -0.3 19
15 Sheffield Weds 16 5 4 7 -8 -1.5 19
16 Luton 16 5 3 8 -8 +0.2 18
17 Oxford 16 4 5 7 -5 -7.9 17
18 Plymouth 16 4 5 7 -11 -16.7 17
19 Coventry 15 4 4 7 -1 +6.0 16
20 Preston 16 3 7 6 -8 -3.6 16
21 Cardiff 16 4 4 8 -9 -6.8 16
22 Hull 16 3 6 7 -5 -1.2 15
23 Portsmouth 15 2 6 7 -12 -7.9 12
24 QPR 16 1 8 7 -13 -5.6 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Coventry
29′
🟨 Norman Bassette
Half-time 1–0
1–0 J. Sarmiento
C. Roberts
47′
63′
🔁 E. Mason-Clark
↦ N. Bassette
63′
🔁 J. Rudoni
↦ J. Dasilva
63′
🔁 E. Simms
↦ V. Torp
L. Koleosho 🔁
↦ J. Sarmiento
68′
B. Humphreys 🔁
↦ Lucas Pires
79′
A. Hountondji 🔁
↦ J. Rodríguez
79′
H. Massengo 🔁
↦ H. Mejbri
79′
2–0 C. Egan-Riley
80′
85′
🔁 J. Bidwell
↦ L. Binks
85′
🔁 B. Thomas-Asante
↦ B. Sheaf
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Burnley

4-2-3-1
1 J. Trafford G
14 C. Roberts D
6 C. Egan-Riley D
5 M. Estève D
23 Lucas Pires D
24 J. Cullen M
29 J. Laurent M
11 J. Anthony M
28 H. Mejbri M
7 J. Sarmiento M
9 J. Rodríguez F
Bench (9)
30 L. Koleosho
12 B. Humphreys
37 A. Hountondji
42 H. Massengo
3 S. Sambo
32 V. Hladký
15 N. Redmond
16 J. Egan
39 O. Dodgson

Coach: S. Parker

Coventry

3-5-1-1
40 B. Collins G
22 J. Latibeaudiere D
4 B. Thomas D
2 L. Binks D
27 M. van Ewijk M
28 J. Eccles M
14 B. Sheaf M
7 T. Sakamoto M
3 J. Dasilva M
29 V. Torp F
37 N. Bassette F
Bench (9)
10 E. Mason-Clark
5 J. Rudoni
9 E. Simms
21 J. Bidwell
23 B. Thomas-Asante
1 O. Dovin
8 J. Allen
15 L. Kitching
54 K. Andrews

Coach: R. Carr

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,22
U
3,26
B
3,36
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,26
U2,5 ✓
1,64
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Backhouse · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.