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Champions League
Referee: D Siebert
Sp Lisbon
S S S S S
4–1
Full-time
Man City
S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
2,5
2,2
Conceded
0,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
0%
67%
Both score Ø 17%
33%
0%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,7
3,0
Conceded
0,3
0,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+3,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,86 xG 2,21
27% Possession 73%
9 Shots 20
6 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 8
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 11
1 Offside 4
8 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Lisbon Man City
4′
⚽ P. Foden 0–1
1–1 V. Gyökeres ⚽
Geovany Quenda
38′
45′
🟨 Mateo Kovačić
Half-time 2–1
2–1 M. Araújo ⚽
Pote
46′
3–1 V. Gyökeres ⚽
49′
Pedro Gonçalves 🟨
55′
66′
ℹ️ Bernardo Silva
VAR: Penalty confirmed
69′
❌ Erling Haaland
penalty missed
Maximiliano Araújo 🟨
73′
73′
🟨 Savinho
J. St. Juste 🔁
↦ Matheus Reis
75′
Daniel Bragança 🔁
↦ H. Morita
75′
Geny Catamo 🔁
↦ M. Araújo
75′
77′
🔁 J. Doku
↦ Savinho
77′
🔁 İ. Gündoğan
↦ Bernardo Silva
79′
🟨 Matheus Nunes
4–1 V. Gyökeres ⚽
80′
84′
🔁 K. De Bruyne
↦ M. Kovačić
Eduardo Quaresma 🔁
↦ Geovany Quenda
85′
Morten Hjulmand 🟨
88′
C. Harder 🔁
↦ Trincão
88′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 F. Israel G
6 Z. Debast D
26 O. Diomande D
2 Matheus Reis D
57 Geovany Quenda M
5 H. Morita M
42 M. Hjulmand M
20 M. Araújo M
17 Trincão F
8 Pote F
9 V. Gyökeres F
Bench (11)
3 J. St. Juste
23 Daniel Bragança
21 Geny Catamo
72 Eduardo Quaresma
19 C. Harder
13 V. Kovačević
47 Ricardo Esgaio
22 Iván Fresneda
51 Diogo Pinto
52 João Simões
10 M. Edwards

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Man City

4-1-4-1
31 Ederson G
82 R. Lewis D
66 J. Simpson-Pusey D
25 M. Akanji D
24 J. Gvardiol D
8 M. Kovačić M
26 Savinho M
47 P. Foden M
20 Bernardo Silva M
27 Matheus Nunes M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (11)
11 J. Doku
19 İ. Gündoğan
17 K. De Bruyne
87 J. McAtee
18 S. Ortega
2 K. Walker
6 N. Aké
56 J. Wright
33 S. Carson
97 J. Wilson-Esbrand
75 N. O'Reilly

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.