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Champions League
Referee: S Gözübüyük
Benfica
U S S S S
4–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,0
Scored
2,7
1,5
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,46 xG 0,24
53% Possession 47%
19 Shots 4
10 Shots on target 0
4 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Benfica Ath Madrid
1–0 K. Aktürkoğlu ⚽
F. Aursnes
13′
Fredrik Aursnes 🟨
22′
33′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ Marcos Llorente
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Javi Serrano
↦ R. De Paul
46′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ Koke
46′
🔁 A. Sørloth
↦ A. Griezmann
Vangelis Pavlidis ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
50′
2–0 Á. Di María ⚽
52′
Z. Amdouni 🔁
↦ V. Pavlidis
60′
60′
🔁 G. Simeone
↦ J. Alvarez
70′
🟨 Javier Serrano
B. Rollheiser 🔁
↦ Á. Di María
71′
J. Beste 🔁
↦ K. Aktürkoğlu
71′
3–0 A. Bah ⚽
J. Beste
75′
83′
🟨 José María Giménez
83′
🟨 Reinildo Mandava
4–0 O. Kökçü ⚽
84′
António Silva 🔁
↦ A. Bah
86′
L. Barreiro 🔁
↦ O. Kökçü
86′
95′
🟨 Ángel Correa
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Benfica

4-3-3
1 A. Trubin G
6 A. Bah D
44 Tomás Araújo D
30 N. Otamendi D
3 Álvaro Fernández D
8 F. Aursnes M
61 Florentino M
10 O. Kökçü M
11 Á. Di María F
14 V. Pavlidis F
17 K. Aktürkoğlu F
Bench (12)
7 Z. Amdouni
32 B. Rollheiser
37 J. Beste
4 António Silva
18 L. Barreiro
81 A. Bajrami
24 Samuel Soares
9 Arthur Cabral
25 G. Prestianni
75 André Gomes
21 A. Schjelderup
28 I. Kaboré

Coach: Bruno Lage

Ath Madrid

3-4-2-1
13 J. Oblak G
20 A. Witsel D
2 J. Giménez D
23 Reinildo D
14 Marcos Llorente M
5 R. De Paul M
6 Koke M
12 Samuel Lino M
10 Á. Correa F
19 J. Alvarez F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (12)
16 N. Molina
29 Javi Serrano
4 C. Gallagher
9 A. Sørloth
22 G. Simeone
1 J. Musso
43 G. Spina
15 C. Lenglet
31 Antonio Gomis
21 Javi Galán
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
11 T. Lemar

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Gözübüyük · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.