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Champions League
Referee: R Petrescu
Aston Villa
S S S S U
1–0
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,7
5,3
Scored
2,5
4,3
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+3,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
3,0
11,0
Scored
3,0
9,0
Conceded
0,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+7,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,40 xG 1,42
30% Possession 70%
5 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 6
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 11
2 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Aston Villa Bayern Munich
21′
🟨 Dayot Upamecano
Pau Torres ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
24′
L. Bailey 🔁
↦ J. Ramsey
27′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 J. Musiala
↦ K. Coman
R. Barkley 🔁
↦ A. Onana
60′
I. Maatsen 🔁
↦ L. Bailey
60′
66′
🟨 Serge Gnabry
66′
🔁 L. Sané
↦ M. Olise
J. Durán 🔁
↦ O. Watkins
70′
76′
🔁 João Palhinha
↦ A. Pavlović
1–0 J. Durán ⚽
Pau Torres
79′
86′
🔁 L. Goretzka
↦ Kim Min-Jae
86′
🔁 M. Tel
↦ K. Laimer
Ian Maatsen 🟨
91′
Diego Carlos 🟨
94′
Jhon Durán 🟨
95′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martínez G
4 E. Konsa D
3 Diego Carlos D
14 Pau Torres D
12 L. Digne D
24 A. Onana M
8 Y. Tielemans M
19 J. Philogene M
27 M. Rogers M
41 J. Ramsey M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (12)
31 L. Bailey
6 R. Barkley
22 I. Maatsen
9 J. Durán
48 O. Zych
20 K. Nedeljković
72 K. Young
26 L. Bogarde
10 E. Buendía
2 M. Cash
50 S. Swinkels
18 J. Gauci

Coach: Unai Emery

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
27 K. Laimer D
2 D. Upamecano D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
19 A. Davies D
6 J. Kimmich M
45 A. Pavlović M
7 S. Gnabry M
17 M. Olise M
11 K. Coman M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (10)
42 J. Musiala
10 L. Sané
16 João Palhinha
8 L. Goretzka
39 M. Tel
15 E. Dier
18 D. Peretz
22 Raphaël Guerreiro
25 T. Müller
26 S. Ulreich

Coach: V. Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Petrescu · 21 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.