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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Fulham

S S T T T

5–3

Full-time

Leicester

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 31%

38%

24%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

65%

62%

Both score Ø 58%

59%

56%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,64 xG 2,84

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 10. · Leicester 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	34	26	4	4	+58	+25.5	82
2	Arsenal	35	25	6	4	+44	+11.2	81
3	Newcastle	34	18	11	5	+32	+13.7	65
4	Man United	34	19	6	9	+8	+2.4	63
5	Liverpool	35	18	8	9	+25	+12.1	62
6	Tottenham	35	17	6	12	+7	-0.6	57
7	Brighton	32	16	7	9	+22	+18.9	55
8	Aston Villa	35	16	6	13	+3	-1.3	54
9	Brentford	35	12	14	9	+7	+2.1	50
10	Fulham	34	13	6	15	-1	-9.3	45
11	Chelsea	34	11	9	14	-5	+2.4	42
12	Crystal Palace	35	10	10	15	-11	-3.9	40
13	Wolves	35	11	7	17	-20	-9.7	40
14	Bournemouth	35	11	6	18	-30	-5.9	39
15	West Ham	35	10	7	18	-12	-3.8	37
16	Leicester	34	8	6	20	-13	-2.7	30
17	Leeds	35	7	9	19	-25	-11.8	30
18	Nott'm Forest	34	7	9	18	-32	-14.9	30
19	Everton	34	6	11	17	-25	-10.5	29
20	Southampton	34	6	6	22	-32	-13.9	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	16	1	1	+42	+16.1	49
2	Liverpool	18	13	4	1	+29	+13.1	43
3	Arsenal	17	13	3	1	+26	+10.7	42
4	Man United	16	12	3	1	+20	+8.3	39
5	Tottenham	18	12	1	5	+14	+3.3	37
6	Newcastle	17	10	5	2	+19	+10.5	35
7	Aston Villa	17	10	2	5	+10	+3.1	32
8	Brentford	17	8	7	2	+14	+4.4	31
9	Brighton	16	9	3	4	+18	+12.3	30
10	Wolves	18	9	2	7	-1	-0.4	29
11	Fulham	17	7	4	6	+0	-2.8	25
12	West Ham	18	7	4	7	+0	+1.5	25
13	Nott'm Forest	17	6	6	5	+1	-6.8	24
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	-4	-3.4	24
15	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.0	23
16	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-7	-2.2	22
17	Leeds	17	5	6	6	-8	-1.9	21
18	Everton	17	5	3	9	-9	-2.1	18
19	Leicester	17	4	4	9	-2	-0.6	16
20	Southampton	17	2	4	11	-16	-5.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	12	3	3	+18	+0.5	39
2	Man City	16	10	3	3	+16	+9.3	33
3	Newcastle	17	8	6	3	+13	+3.1	30
4	Brighton	16	7	4	5	+4	+6.6	25
5	Man United	18	7	3	8	-12	-5.9	24
6	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	-7	-4.4	22
7	Fulham	17	6	2	9	-1	-6.5	20
8	Tottenham	17	5	5	7	-7	-4.0	20
9	Liverpool	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.9	19
10	Chelsea	17	5	4	8	-6	-1.6	19
11	Brentford	18	4	7	7	-7	-2.3	19
12	Bournemouth	17	5	2	10	-23	-3.7	17
13	Crystal Palace	18	4	4	10	-7	-0.5	16
14	Leicester	17	4	2	11	-11	-2.1	14
15	Southampton	17	4	2	11	-16	-8.7	14
16	West Ham	17	3	3	11	-12	-5.3	12
17	Everton	17	1	8	8	-16	-8.3	11
18	Wolves	17	2	5	10	-19	-9.3	11
19	Leeds	18	2	3	13	-17	-9.9	9
20	Nott'm Forest	17	1	3	13	-33	-8.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.