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Serie A

Referee: M Ferrieri Caputi

Sassuolo

T S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Bologna

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sassuolo Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 36%

36%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

55%

52%

Both score Ø 55%

48%

61%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,31 xG 0,51

48% Possession 52%

6 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sassuolo 13. · Bologna 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	34	26	5	3	+47	+11.4	83
2	Juventus	34	20	6	8	+24	+6.8	66
3	Lazio	34	19	7	8	+26	+2.1	64
4	Inter	34	20	3	11	+27	+18.8	63
5	Milan	34	17	10	7	+16	+3.4	61
6	Atalanta	34	17	7	10	+15	+3.1	58
7	Roma	34	17	7	10	+12	+6.8	58
8	Fiorentina	34	12	10	12	+5	+5.5	46
9	Udinese	34	11	13	10	+4	-2.8	46
10	Monza	34	12	10	12	-3	-3.2	46
11	Torino	34	12	10	12	-3	+2.8	46
12	Bologna	33	12	9	12	-1	-2.0	45
13	Sassuolo	33	12	7	14	-9	+3.2	43
14	Empoli	34	9	11	14	-13	-7.6	38
15	Salernitana	34	7	14	13	-14	-12.3	35
16	Lecce	34	7	10	17	-13	+0.8	31
17	Verona	33	7	8	18	-23	-6.2	29
18	Spezia	33	5	11	17	-28	-6.8	26
19	Cremonese	34	4	12	18	-28	-10.1	24
20	Sampdoria	34	3	8	23	-41	-13.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	3	2	+22	+4.4	39
2	Napoli	17	12	3	2	+21	+4.8	39
3	Milan	17	11	4	2	+15	+4.5	37
4	Inter	17	12	0	5	+20	+9.5	36
5	Lazio	17	10	3	4	+13	+1.3	33
6	Roma	17	10	2	5	+12	+2.1	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
8	Udinese	17	6	9	2	+12	+3.8	27
9	Atalanta	17	8	3	6	+7	+5.2	27
10	Fiorentina	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.2	27
11	Sassuolo	16	8	3	5	+4	+1.7	27
12	Empoli	17	7	4	6	-2	-0.9	25
13	Monza	17	6	5	6	+2	+1.0	23
14	Salernitana	17	5	6	6	+2	-5.5	21
15	Torino	17	5	6	6	-3	+2.1	21
16	Verona	17	6	2	9	-11	-3.9	20
17	Lecce	17	3	7	7	-5	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	16	3	7	6	-10	-5.7	16
19	Cremonese	17	3	4	10	-14	-4.6	13
20	Sampdoria	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	17	14	2	1	+26	+6.6	44
2	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+13	+0.8	31
3	Atalanta	17	9	4	4	+8	-2.1	31
4	Inter	17	8	3	6	+7	+9.3	27
5	Juventus	17	8	3	6	+2	+2.4	27
6	Roma	17	7	5	5	+0	+4.8	26
7	Torino	17	7	4	6	+0	+0.7	25
8	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	-1.2	24
9	Monza	17	6	5	6	-5	-4.1	23
10	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	+0	-1.7	19
11	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
12	Bologna	16	5	2	9	-11	-1.5	17
13	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-13	+1.5	16
14	Lecce	17	4	3	10	-8	-2.0	15
15	Salernitana	17	2	8	7	-16	-6.9	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	17	1	8	8	-14	-5.5	11
18	Spezia	17	2	4	11	-18	-1.1	10
19	Verona	16	1	6	9	-12	-2.3	9
20	Sampdoria	17	2	3	12	-25	-11.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.