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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Nacional

T U S S S

3–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

54%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 11. · Guimaraes 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+39	65
2	Benfica	26	21	1	4	+52	64
3	Porto	27	19	4	4	+30	61
4	Sp Braga	26	13	8	5	+22	47
5	Arouca	27	10	11	6	+4	41
6	Rio Ave	27	11	6	10	-1	39
7	Pacos Ferreira	26	9	8	9	+0	35
8	Guimaraes	26	8	10	8	-4	34
9	Estoril	26	9	6	11	-3	33
10	Belenenses	26	8	8	10	-18	32
11	Nacional	26	8	7	11	-7	31
12	Maritimo	27	8	5	14	-16	29
13	Vitoria Setubal	27	6	10	11	-12	28
14	Moreirense	26	7	6	13	-13	27
15	U. Madeira	26	6	7	13	-17	25
16	Boavista	26	6	6	14	-13	24
17	Academica	26	5	8	13	-18	23
18	Tondela	26	3	4	19	-25	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	11	0	2	+30	33
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Sp Braga	12	8	3	1	+22	27
5	Rio Ave	14	8	1	5	+3	25
6	Arouca	13	6	4	3	+6	22
7	Estoril	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Nacional	13	6	3	4	+2	21
9	U. Madeira	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	-3	19
11	Academica	13	5	4	4	-3	19
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	3	5	+3	18
13	Guimaraes	14	4	5	5	+1	17
14	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	+0	17
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	8	4	-8	14
16	Moreirense	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+22	31
3	Porto	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+0	20
5	Arouca	14	4	7	3	-2	19
6	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	5	4	-3	17
7	Guimaraes	12	4	5	3	-5	17
8	Moreirense	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-4	14
10	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	2	7	-4	14
11	Boavista	13	4	2	7	-5	14
12	Belenenses	13	3	4	6	-15	13
13	Estoril	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-16	12
15	Nacional	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-11	8
17	U. Madeira	13	1	2	10	-19	5
18	Academica	13	0	4	9	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.