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Eredivisie

Referee: Marc Nagtegaal

For Sittard

U U T T T

4–3

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

For Sittard AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 39%

31%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

50%

73%

Both score Ø 68%

63%

73%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,38 xG 3,79

34% Possession 66%

15 Shots 21

6 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match For Sittard 14. · AZ Alkmaar 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	15	1	1	+31	+14.6	46
2	Feyenoord	17	11	2	4	+21	+20.2	35
3	Nijmegen	17	8	5	4	+14	+5.6	29
4	Ajax	16	7	6	3	+8	+0.4	27
5	Groningen	16	8	3	5	+5	+9.5	27
6	Twente	17	6	7	4	+5	+16.6	25
7	AZ Alkmaar	15	7	4	4	+4	+9.3	25
8	Utrecht	16	6	4	6	+5	-2.9	22
9	Heerenveen	16	6	4	6	+3	+12.6	22
10	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-14	-6.6	20
11	Go Ahead Eagles	17	4	7	6	-3	-10.4	19
12	Excelsior	16	6	1	9	-11	-10.5	19
13	Zwolle	17	5	4	8	-17	-14.4	19
14	For Sittard	16	5	3	8	-5	-4.8	18
15	Telstar	17	3	6	8	-7	-7.6	15
16	Volendam	16	3	5	8	-11	-12.8	14
17	Heracles	17	4	2	11	-18	-12.1	14
18	NAC Breda	17	3	4	10	-10	-6.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	+13	+9.5	19
2	Feyenoord	9	6	1	2	+10	+11.7	19
3	Nijmegen	8	5	2	1	+11	+6.4	17
4	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.8	16
5	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.6	16
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.2	14
7	Twente	8	4	2	2	+2	+9.9	14
8	For Sittard	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.3	14
9	Go Ahead Eagles	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.3	13
10	Zwolle	8	4	1	3	-4	-2.2	13
11	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+3	+5.1	12
12	Volendam	8	3	3	2	+3	+0.4	12
13	Heerenveen	8	3	3	2	+1	+8.8	12
14	Excelsior	9	4	0	5	-2	-5.5	12
15	NAC Breda	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.9	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	2	4	-9	-3.8	11
17	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.6	10
18	Telstar	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+18	+5.1	27
2	Feyenoord	8	5	1	2	+11	+8.5	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.2	13
4	Groningen	8	4	1	3	-2	+2.3	13
5	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
6	Twente	9	2	5	2	+3	+6.7	11
7	Ajax	8	2	5	1	+2	-4.2	11
8	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
9	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.7	9
10	Telstar	8	2	2	4	-3	-7.6	8
11	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
12	Utrecht	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
13	Go Ahead Eagles	9	1	3	5	-6	-10.1	6
14	Zwolle	9	1	3	5	-13	-12.2	6
15	For Sittard	8	1	1	6	-7	-9.1	4
16	Heracles	9	1	1	7	-15	-10.5	4
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-9	-9.6	2
18	Volendam	8	0	2	6	-14	-13.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.