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Eredivisie

Referee: A Lindhout

Vitesse

T T U T T

0–3

Full-time

Nijmegen

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitesse Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

14%

41%

Points per game

0,6

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

54%

67%

Both score Ø 62%

54%

70%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

2,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,06 xG 1,24

54% Possession 46%

20 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitesse 17. · Nijmegen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	29	25	3	1	+72	+59.8	78
2	Feyenoord	28	20	6	2	+47	+54.6	66
3	Twente	29	18	6	5	+27	+18.4	60
4	AZ Alkmaar	29	15	7	7	+23	+13.5	52
5	Ajax	28	12	9	7	+12	+10.8	45
6	Nijmegen	27	11	9	7	+12	-13.8	42
7	Go Ahead Eagles	27	11	7	9	+6	-4.4	40
8	Utrecht	28	10	9	9	+0	-4.6	39
9	Sparta Rotterdam	29	10	7	12	+1	-6.8	37
10	For Sittard	29	9	8	12	-17	+2.0	35
11	Heerenveen	28	9	6	13	-7	-3.6	33
12	Almere City	28	7	11	10	-17	-14.2	32
13	Heracles	29	9	5	15	-20	-20.8	32
14	Zwolle	29	8	7	14	-18	-12.1	31
15	Waalwijk	28	6	6	16	-19	-10.5	24
16	Excelsior	29	4	10	15	-24	-17.1	22
17	Vitesse	28	4	5	19	-37	-22.0	17
18	Volendam	28	3	7	18	-41	-29.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	13	1	0	+33	+32.2	40
2	Twente	15	12	1	2	+16	+14.8	37
3	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+26	+29.2	33
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	2	3	+21	+15.5	29
5	Ajax	14	7	5	2	+14	+9.4	26
6	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+14	+2.5	26
7	For Sittard	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.4	25
8	Go Ahead Eagles	14	7	3	4	+13	+5.6	24
9	Utrecht	14	6	5	3	+5	+3.1	23
10	Heerenveen	14	6	3	5	+5	+6.6	21
11	Heracles	14	6	3	5	-3	-5.9	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	5	6	-2	+1.9	17
13	Waalwijk	15	4	4	7	-5	-1.9	16
14	Almere City	14	3	6	5	-8	-4.6	15
15	Zwolle	15	4	3	8	-13	+2.0	15
16	Excelsior	14	2	7	5	-6	-1.5	13
17	Vitesse	14	1	5	8	-13	-5.3	8
18	Volendam	14	2	2	10	-25	-10.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	12	2	1	+39	+27.7	38
2	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+21	+25.4	33
3	Twente	14	6	5	3	+11	+3.6	23
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	5	4	+2	-2.0	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	2	6	+3	-8.7	20
6	Ajax	14	5	4	5	-2	+1.4	19
7	Almere City	14	4	5	5	-9	-9.6	17
8	Nijmegen	14	3	7	4	-2	-16.3	16
9	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-5	-14.1	16
10	Utrecht	14	4	4	6	-5	-7.7	16
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	4	5	-7	-10.0	16
12	Heerenveen	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.2	12
13	Heracles	15	3	2	10	-17	-14.9	11
14	For Sittard	15	2	4	9	-25	-12.5	10
15	Excelsior	15	2	3	10	-18	-15.6	9
16	Vitesse	14	3	0	11	-24	-16.6	9
17	Waalwijk	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
18	Volendam	14	1	5	8	-16	-19.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.