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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Tottenham

T T U S S

3–6

Full-time

Liverpool

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tottenham Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 59%

44%

73%

Points per game

1,4

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

69%

60%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

47%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

2,3

2,1

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,27 xG 5,63

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 24

5 Shots on target 12

1 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

4 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tottenham 11. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+18	+16.6	36
2	Chelsea	17	10	5	2	+18	+11.4	35
3	Arsenal	17	9	6	2	+18	+14.3	33
4	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+4	+2.7	31
5	Bournemouth	17	8	4	5	+6	+11.8	28
6	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+0	+7.3	28
7	Man City	17	8	3	6	+4	+5.7	27
8	Newcastle	17	7	5	5	+6	+6.4	26
9	Fulham	17	6	7	4	+2	+2.0	25
10	Brighton	17	6	7	4	+1	-2.5	25
11	Tottenham	16	7	2	7	+17	+6.9	23
12	Brentford	17	7	2	8	+0	-2.8	23
13	Man United	17	6	4	7	-1	+0.7	22
14	West Ham	17	5	5	7	-8	-4.2	20
15	Everton	16	3	7	6	-7	-5.2	16
16	Crystal Palace	17	3	7	7	-8	-1.5	16
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-16	-18.2	14
18	Wolves	17	3	3	11	-13	-10.3	12
19	Ipswich	17	2	6	9	-16	-19.5	12
20	Southampton	17	1	3	13	-25	-21.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	9	7	1	1	+10	+6.8	22
2	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+10	+9.6	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	3	0	+11	+11.5	18
4	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+10.1	18
5	Man City	8	5	1	2	+4	+7.5	16
6	Chelsea	8	4	3	1	+5	+7.6	15
7	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.2	15
8	Newcastle	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.6	14
9	Bournemouth	8	4	2	2	+4	+7.4	14
10	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+3	+4.1	14
11	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+9	+5.0	13
12	Brighton	8	3	4	1	+1	+1.3	13
13	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	+1.3	13
14	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
15	Everton	8	2	4	2	+1	-2.9	10
16	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-4	-7.9	9
17	Crystal Palace	9	1	4	4	-8	-0.1	7
18	Wolves	8	1	1	6	-8	-5.7	4
19	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-10	-7.3	4
20	Southampton	8	1	1	6	-14	-12.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	6	2	1	+13	+3.8	20
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
3	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+1	-1.4	17
4	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+7	+2.7	15
5	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+2	+4.3	14
6	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
7	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+0	-3.9	12
8	Man City	9	3	2	4	+0	-1.8	11
9	Tottenham	8	3	1	4	+8	+1.9	10
10	Fulham	8	2	4	2	+1	+0.7	10
11	Aston Villa	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.8	10
12	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.4	9
13	Man United	8	2	3	3	+0	-0.6	9
14	West Ham	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.3	9
15	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-5	-4.6	8
16	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-6	-12.2	8
17	Everton	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.2	6
18	Leicester	8	1	2	5	-12	-10.2	5
19	Southampton	9	0	2	7	-11	-9.2	2
20	Brentford	8	0	1	7	-10	-9.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.