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Serie A

Referee: Livio Marinelli

Lecce

U S S S U

0–2

Full-time

Milan

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,2

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

0,0

3,0

Scored

0,0

1,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,30 xG 1,85

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 14. · Milan 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
2	Inter	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.7	3
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
4	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
6	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
7	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
8	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
9	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
10	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
12	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
13	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
15	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.7	0
16	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
18	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
19	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0
20	Torino	1	0	0	1	-5	-0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.7	3
2	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
3	Como	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
4	Cremonese	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
5	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
6	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
7	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
8	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
9	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
10	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.7	0
11	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
2	Cremonese	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.7	3
3	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
4	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
5	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
6	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
7	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
8	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
9	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
10	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
11	Torino	1	0	0	1	-5	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.